275 FXUS64 KLCH 100229 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 929 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across the area this evening as the initial cold front slowly pushes southeastward. These showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to remain widespread through at least midnight. Therefore, with this update the PoPs have been increased to likely through midnight for the Piney Woods northeastward into portions of central Louisiana. Beyond midnight, it is less clear if convection will remain as widespread across the region. IR satellite over the past few hours has indicated warming cloud tops along the cold front and most guidance has lower QPF amounts after midnight. However, the environment remains favorable for precipitation given a PWAT of 2.48" sampled by the 00Z KLCH sounding and a slowly, but steadily, advancing cold front. Based on the radar trends over the past few hours and the favorable environment, PoPs during the overnight hours were left at 40%-60% through 12Z tomorrow. The main cold front currently extending across central Oklahoma and north-central Texas is still expected to move through the CWA tomorrow morning and exit by early afternoon. In the wake of this front, drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures are expected for the second half of the week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION... 00Z Taf issuance. AVIATION... Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms continue over SE TX/C and S LA mainly west of a line from AEX to LFT late this afternoon. Taking out VCTS for LFT/ARA. Higher chances of SHRA will remain for all terminals this evening and overnight, along with MVFR to IFR ceilings by 09-15z Wednesday. Thereafter, ceilings expected to improve, along with increasing NW winds around 6-8 kts by 15z, and 12-14 kts gusts near 20 kts by the afternoon hours. DML PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION... The area is centered between two dueling features this afternoon. In the west corner is a large upper trough and the much anticipated frontal boundary that has been sitting over the central U.S. bringing flooding rains to parts of Texas and Oklahoma over the past two days. In the southeast corner is hurricane Michael which continues to intensify as it makes its trek north across the eastern gulf of Mexico. In between is a very moist (PWAT guidance over 2 inches) unstable airmass that continues to yield scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The trof axis is progged to begin progressing more rapidly to the east tonight which will provide enough lifting to maintain isolated to scattered convection through much of the night. Based on the latest hi res guidance, the frontal boundary will likely reach southeast texas by mid morning tomorrow, southwest Louisiana by midday and acadiana by early afternoon. Precipitation will come to an end behind the front with cooler, drier air advecting readily into the region in its wake. Thursday and Friday are shaping up to be very pleasant, autumn days with plenty of sunshine and seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures. Southerly flow returns late Saturday into Sunday as high pressure slides east of the area. The evolution of the next frontal boundary that seemed more clear this morning has become muddied once again as the ECMWF and the GFS have once again diverged in their solutions. The GFS continues to push the front through the area although not quite as quickly as in previous runs and while the 00Z Euro had come into agreement with this solution, the recently arrived 12Z run is back to stalling the front short of the coast and setting up several days of training rainfall. Given the uncertainty, the official forecast will continue to show low end PoPs beginning Sunday through the end of the forecast period until a better consensus is realized. Jones MARINE... Easterly winds are expected to remain elevated along with rough seas as hurricane Michael tracks northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will result in tides running 1 to 1.5 feet above normal which could lead to minor coastal flooding at the times of predicted astronomical high tide. A cold front will push through the coastal waters on Wednesday turning winds offshore through the end of the week. South winds will return to start the weekend ahead of another cold front approaching from the west. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 87 63 79 / 70 30 10 0 LCH 74 88 66 82 / 50 20 10 0 LFT 75 89 67 82 / 40 30 10 0 BPT 75 88 66 83 / 60 20 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LAZ041- 052>054-073-074. TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ215-216. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ470-472-475. Small Craft Exercise Caution through Wednesday evening for GMZ450-452-455. && $$ PUBLIC...26