325 FXUS64 KLCH 091730 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .DISCUSSION... For the 09/18Z TAF Issuance. && .AVIATION... A surface cold frontal boundary is located from the Southern Plains down into west central Texas. Moist southerly flow will continue across the forecast area today into tonight ahead of the front. Therefore, will see scattered showers and occasional low ceilings persist through the afternoon hours. MVFR conditions will be possible from the low clouds and passing showers. Ahead of the front tonight, a few showers will continue with lowering ceilings and patchy fog with IFR to MVFR conditions. The front will move across during the daytime, however MVFR ceilings to linger until drier air filters in beyond the forecast period. Rua && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ UPDATE... Morning AFD update. DISCUSSION... Forecast remains on track with no major changes made. Showers are beginning to move onshore near the coast and expect this trend to continue with numerous showers and thundershowers expected across the region through the day today. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ AVIATION...Numerous shower and storms are expected today. Lower vis and ceilings can be expected in convection with patchy lower ceilings even outside of showers this morning and evening. Winds will be east to southeast through the period and gusty during the afternoon. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION... Little in the way of changes made to the 7 day forecast early this morning, with global model guidance in relatively good agreement through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Latest upper air analysis/WV satellite imagery revealed a mean upper trof over the Intermountain West/Four Corners, with a basal shortwave taking on an increasingly negative tilt as it begins to lift out to the NE. To the east, a deep layer ridge was centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast, while Hurricane Michael was located over the SE Gulf. GOES TPW product shows a tongue of relatively higher MSTR (>=2") extending to the NW of Michael into SE/SC LA. KLCH radar showing scattered showers streaming NW across the coastal waters and into the adjacent coastal counties/parishes. Relatively active period of convection expected to unfold today amid sufficient MSTR continuing to feed into the area within deep S/SE low/mid level flow, favorable divergent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper trof, and little to no progged inhibition per KLCH 06Z RAOB. Earlier onset and more widespread nature of clouds/convection should hold temperatures down a bit from where they topped out yesterday, but overall still a warm with highs in the mid/upper 80s. Convective coverage will decrease though not end entirely with the loss of diurnal instability tonight, with moisture and lift fading tomorrow as winds veer ahead of and behind the cold front forecast to push through the area tomorrow night. In the wake of the front, much cooler and drier air will prevail amid high pressure at the SFC underneath westerly flow aloft. Will see a stretch of temperatures THU through SAT AOB seasonal normals. The first such stretch in quite a while not induced by rainfall. Moderation is expected SAT night as southerly winds return ahead of an approaching SFC low and trailing CDFNT. Rain chances return to the forecast SUN and MON. 13 MARINE... Easterly winds are expected to remain elevated with building seas today as hurricane Michael tracks northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will result in tides running 1 to 1.5 feet above normal which could result in minor coastal flooding at the times of predicted astronomical high tide. A cold front will push through the coastal waters on Wednesday turning winds offshore through the end of the week. South winds will return to start the weekend ahead of another cold front approaching from the west. The coastal flood advisory was extended through early WED morning to capture the high tide late tonight, and it may need to be extended through one additional high tide cycle before northerly winds and decreasing seas reduce the risk of minor coastal flooding. The small craft advisories were massaged a bit to better align with the wave height forecast, as they are primarily what is driving the need for the hazard. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 86 71 88 63 / 70 40 20 10 LCH 86 74 88 66 / 70 30 20 10 LFT 87 73 89 66 / 70 30 20 10 BPT 85 74 88 66 / 70 30 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LAZ041- 052>054-073-074. TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ215-216. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ475. Small Craft Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for GMZ450-452-455-470. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ472. && $$ AVIATION...07