835 FXUS63 KLBF 102007 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 307 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A disturbance across southern Wyoming has been producing light snow in that area today. The snow is expected to continue moving east along the Cheyenne divide in Nebraska this evening and then dissipate as it encounters more stable air across swrn Nebraska. Other rain and snow shower activity across wrn and ncntl Nebraska this afternoon is the result of steep low level lapse rates and heating. This precipitation will dissipate with the loss of heating around 6 pm CDT this evening. A second disturbance across nrn Idaho and a portion of the energy from a third disturbance across nrn California will approach western Nebraska Thursday afternoon. The blended model solution suggested a chance of showers across swrn Nebraska late in the afternoon. The temperature forecast tonight leans on the coolest guidance plus bias correction. This guidance was generated by the ECM model. The guidance produces lows in the teens and 20s. Blended guidance plus bias correction was the basis for highs in the 40s Thursday. A freeze warning is in place tonight across most of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A strong shortwave trough will cross the area Thursday night into Friday morning as flow aloft transitions to northwesterly. Mid level frontogenesis increases Thursday evening and persists into Friday morning. Bufkit sounding profiles indicate conditions will be cold enough for a light rain/snow mix during this time, but little snow accumulation is expected. Latest model trends keep the heavier precipitation (one quarter of an inch or so) south of the area across northern Kansas. Generally around one tenth of an inch of precipitation appears possible across our area of western and north central Nebraska. The next disturbance within fast northwest flow aloft drops quickly southeast Saturday night into Sunday. A few showers may accompany this across western and southwest Nebraska, but moisture is limited and amounts look very light. Several cold fronts will accompany the disturbances late this week and weekend, which will keep temperatures below normal. Sunday appears to be the coldest day, with highs only in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR ceilings persist across most of western and northern Nebraska this afternoon. These will dissipate with skies becoming clear this evening. VFR conditions will prevail all areas this evening and overnight into Thursday. Surface winds winds will remain gusty, to around 20 kt from the north this afternoon, but then quickly decrease tonight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ005>010-022>029-035>038-056>059- 069>071-094. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Taylor