674 FXUS63 KLBF 101443 AAB AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service North Platte NE 943 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 H5 analysis this morning had a broad trough of low pressure across the western CONUS which extended from southern Canada into northern Mexico. Within this trough, a tandem of shortwaves were noted tonight. The first was over eastern Colorado and a second was over southern Idaho. High pressure was anchored off the Mid Atlantic coast, while a second area of high pressure was noted 1000 to 1500 miles west of the Oregon coast. Hurricane Michael was noted in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Overnight, the eastern Colorado shortwave had migrated into western Nebraska and was roughly located across the northwestern Nebraska Sandhills as of 2 AM CDT. Overnight, a broad area of rain and snow extended from north central into southwestern Nebraska. Radar trends over the past hour continue to indicate a shrinking in areal coverage of precipitation across southwestern Nebraska with slight enhancement of precipitation over the northwestern sandhills and portions of north central Nebraska. temperatures as of 2 AM CDT ranged from 33 at Gordon, to 39 at O'Neill. && .UPDATE... Issued at 941 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A freeze warning is in place tonight covering all of western and north central Nebraska except Sheridan county. UPDATE Issued at 900 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The winter storm warning and winter weather advisory will be allowed to expired at 9 am CDT. The light mostly non-accumulating snow affecting northern Nebraska will gradually end this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Precipitation chances today, along with lows tonight and frost/freeze potential is the main forecast challenges in the next 24 hours. For today: With respect to winter headlines, the inherited winter storm warning and winter weather advisory will expire at 9 AM CDT this morning. Will evaluate precipitation trends through daybreak on whether or not to cancel portions of the winter headlines early. ATTM, confidence in canceling portions of the WSW are highest across southwestern Nebraska, as the main deformation zone re-develops and shifts north into northwestern portions of the forecast area and South Dakota. Then there is temperatures and the threat for snow this morning. Overnight, temps have been holding in the lower 30s across western and north central Nebraska. At LBF, it has been snowing since late evening, however, snow has not been accumulating. The threat for snow/rain will continue this morning across northern Nebraska as the shortwave trough drifts into South Dakota and the threat for deformation precipitation continues. Will keep any snow accumulations on the very light side however, as temperatures remain in the lower 30s. Some limited clearing will take place across southern portions of the forecast area later today which will allow highs to reach the lower 40s in southwestern Nebraska. Further north, highs will struggle to get out of the upper 30s. Cold, Canadian high pressure, will build southeast into western Nebraska overnight tonight. Cold temperatures are expected with lows bottoming out in the middle to upper 20s. No doubt, we will need a freeze warning for the forecast area tonight, however, to avoid confusion with current winter headlines, will forgo issuing a freeze warning until the inherited winter weather advisory/winter storm warning expires this morning. Will brief the oncoming shift about my concerns. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Main forecast concern this period is low temperatures and precipitation for Thursday night into Friday. An upper level shortwave trough will dipped down from Canada into the High Plains late Thursday into Friday. Precipitation chances will increase through the late evening into early Friday morning. One of the challenges is if the precipitation will be rain or snow. Low temperatures on Thursday night/Friday morning will be below freezing across northwest Nebraska and be just above freezing across southwest Nebraska. After collaborating with surrounding offices and looking at 925mb temperatures decided to increase low temperatures a few degrees to hover just above freezing. Areas across northwest Nebraska and the Sandhills are mostly likely to all snow during early Friday morning while areas in the eastern forecast area will mainly see a rain/snow mix. Since temperatures will teeter around the freezing temperatures Thursday night/Friday morning infiltration of cooler air would effect the location of snow, possibly farther eastward. That being said, any accumulations of snow or rain look to be minimal at this time. Precipitation will move out of the area by mid morning to early afternoon. A cold front will move through the area on Saturday night bringing much colder temperatures to the area. Highs on Sunday will only reach the mid to upper 30s. This is between 25 and 30 degrees below normal and 10 to around 15 degrees colder than Saturday. Temperatures warm back into the upper 40s to mid 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 For the KLBF terminal: Ceilings will gradually increase today from 1500 FT AGL to 3500 FT AGL this afternoon. Skies will begin to scatter out this evening with ceilings ranging from 6000 to 7000 FT AGL. For the KVTN terminal: Light snow will be possible through mid morning with visibilities as low as 4 miles. Snow will end after mid morning with ceilings ranging from 1500 to 2500 FT AGL. Ceilings will increase to 3500 to 6000 FT AGL tonight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ005>010-022>029-035>038-056>059- 069>071-094. && $$ UPDATE...CDC SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Buttler