091 FXUS63 KLBF 092329 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 629 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The models continue to track a closed h700mb low northward through ncntl Nebraska tonight. Last night's heavy snow discussion from WPC indicated the low was closing off faster than previously forecast by the models. This faster intensification process would likely cause snow to develop farther south and indeed, snow is underway this afternoon across southwest Nebraska and northeast Colorado. In fact, cameras throughout ncntl Nebraska have shown a mix of rain and snow this afternoon. Boundary layer heating is holding up the changeover process to all snow. As sunset approaches this evening, the heating process will cease and a rapid changeover should occur, especially across western Nebraska where winds will become northwest. The forecast snowfall amounts, up to 7 or so inches, uses an aggressive approach which is appropriate for the strength of the upper level disturbance. The forecast uses a blend of the HRRR, RAP and HREF models as a basis for snowfall. The forecast places the area along and west of a line from Hayes Center to Newport in a winter weather advisory. A winter storm warning is in place for Cherry county. The snow should become moderate to heavy this evening in some areas. The models show a convectively enhanced rain-snow line setting up from roughly Hayes Center to North Platte to Ainsworth. Just west of this line, a period of heavy snow should develop with 1 inch per hour accumulations possible. The disturbance and the snow should exit ncntl Nebraska Wednesday morning. A period of light non-accumulating snow is possible across the eastern Panhandle in the afternoon associated with a disturbance following quickly on the heels of tonight's storm. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Rather unsettled during this period, but no major storms are expected. First will be the cold temperatures expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure will build in during this time, and with light winds and clear skies, a widespread freeze can be expected. A strong shortwave trough will cross the area Thursday night into Friday morning as flow aloft transitions to northwesterly. Mid level frontogenesis increases Thursday evening and persists into Friday morning. Appears to be cold enough for a light rain/snow mix during this time, but little accumulation is expected. Another disturbance drops quickly southeast Saturday night into Sunday. A few showers may accompany this, but available moisture looks quite limited by this time. As the northwest flow becomes established, several cold fronts will accompany the disturbances, which will keep temperatures below normal. Sunday appears to be the coldest day, with highs only in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 We continue to see widespread MVFR and lower ceilings/visibility across west central Nebraska, this trend will continue through much of the forecast period as a strong upper low lifts north into the northern plains. The precipitation will be heavy at times before ending south to north on Wednesday. Snow accumulations are possible, especially across north central Nebraska, including KVTN. AT KLBF, we will see a change over to snow later this evening, which will lower visibility. This should occur before 06z. Otherwise, northerly surface winds will prevail, with gusts in excess of 20kts for most terminals through the forecast period. At KLBF, winds will fall below 15 kts overnight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NEZ004-006-008-009-022>026-035>037-056>059-069-070. Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NEZ005-094. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Jacobs