533 FXUS63 KLBF 092034 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 334 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The models continue to track a closed h700mb low northward through ncntl Nebraska tonight. Last night's heavy snow discussion from WPC indicated the low was closing off faster than previously forecast by the models. This faster intensification process would likely cause snow to develop farther south and indeed, snow is underway this afternoon across southwest Nebraska and northeast Colorado. In fact, cameras throughout ncntl Nebraska have shown a mix of rain and snow this afternoon. Boundary layer heating is holding up the changeover process to all snow. As sunset approaches this evening, the heating process will cease and a rapid changeover should occur, especially across western Nebraska where winds will become northwest. The forecast snowfall amounts, up to 7 or so inches, uses an aggressive approach which is appropriate for the strength of the upper level disturbance. The forecast uses a blend of the HRRR, RAP and HREF models as a basis for snowfall. The forecast places the area along and west of a line from Hayes Center to Newport in a winter weather advisory. A winter storm warning is in place for Cherry county. The snow should become moderate to heavy this evening in some areas. The models show a convectively enhanced rain-snow line setting up from roughly Hayes Center to North Platte to Ainsworth. Just west of this line, a period of heavy snow should develop with 1 inch per hour accumulations possible. The disturbance and the snow should exit ncntl Nebraska Wednesday morning. A period of light non-accumulating snow is possible across the eastern Panhandle in the afternoon associated with a disturbance following quickly on the heels of tonight's storm. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Rather unsettled during this period, but no major storms are expected. First will be the cold temperatures expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure will build in during this time, and with light winds and clear skies, a widespread freeze can be expected. A strong shortwave trough will cross the area Thursday night into Friday morning as flow aloft transitions to northwesterly. Mid level frontogenesis increases Thursday evening and persists into Friday morning. Appears to be cold enough for a light rain/snow mix during this time, but little accumulation is expected. Another disturbance drops quickly southeast Saturday night into Sunday. A few showers may accompany this, but available moisture looks quite limited by this time. As the northwest flow becomes established, several cold fronts will accompany the disturbances, which will keep temperatures below normal. Sunday appears to be the coldest day, with highs only in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Widespread MVFR and local IFR ceilings can be expected the next 24 hours across all of western and north central Nebraska. Widespread precipitation in the form of rain and snow will also continue. Northerly surface winds with gusts greater than 20 kt are also expected. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NEZ004-006-008-009-022>026-035>037-056>059-069-070. Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NEZ005-094. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Taylor