543 
FXUS62 KKEY 110920
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
520 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Michael has weaken to a tropical storm this morning as the system
moves into South Carolina. Minimum central pressure was 979 MB. 
The pressure gradient from Michael continues to wane over the 
eastern gulf waters as the system moves off to the northeast and 
this overall pattern will continue today.

Temperatures currently are in the lower 80s as dew points have 
slid back into the upper 70s. Winds are southerly around 10 knots.
A few showers and thunderstorms are in the coastal waters mainly 
west and northwest of Key West lifting to the northeast around a
zone of confluence that is pushing northeast.

For today partly to mostly cloudy skies as temperatures return 
back into the mid to upper 80s. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms will continue in the coastal waters and the keys. 
A cool front moving through the panhandle is expected into central
Florida around midnight tonight and into south Florida tomorrow 
evening before stalling just north of the Keys. This latest cool 
front will bump up chances for showers slightly on Saturday 
tapering back on Sunday as the boundary lifts back into central 
Florida before washing out.

.MARINE...
Northwest swells to continue over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
today through Friday. Ridging will build across the southern gulf
Saturday afternoon before high pressure becomes centered over the
Florida peninsula Sunday and Monday. A tropical wave will move 
into the western Caribbean. Otherwise... freshening east to 
southeast breezes are expected Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals 
through the forecast period. The early portion of the forecast, 
through 18z or so, looks to remain dry with no vicinity showers or 
thunderstorms included in the TAF. Southerly winds near 10 knots 
will veer southwesterly and lessen as a weakening front approaches 
late in the period. Convective coverage looks to increase as the 
front approaches, with VCSH introduced after 18z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in 1846, a major Hurricane struck the Florida Keys. At 
Havana, a minimum pressure of 27.06" was recorded. Key West received 
a major storm surge, with most of the island submerged under several 
feet of water. About 50 people were killed in Key West and only a 
handful of the islands 600 buildings escaped damage or destruction.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... 
Key West 87 80 87 79 / 30 30 30 30 
Marathon 89 79 89 79 / 30 30 30 30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...K. Kuyper 
Aviation/Nowcasts....WLC 
Data Collection......K. Kuyper

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