621 
FXUS62 KKEY 110245
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1045 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A barbell-shaped mean layer ridge stretches from the extreme
western North Atlantic to the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface ridge
axis has built west across Cuba and the Straits of Florida. The 
trailing cyclonic bulge of Hurricane Matthew is building southeast
through the Gulf of Mexico. A thin zone of confluence is moving
east into Southwest Florida, collocated with a line of convection
apparent on the KBYX radar. Elsewhere, isolated showers have waxed
and waned over the Straits of Florida along meager Cuban outflows. 

Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints hanging
near 79, making it very humid, even for the Keys. Southeast to
south winds average 5 to 13 knots at the marine observation 
platforms. The forecast calls for 40% rain chances along the 
island chain, which is below the statistical guidance. It's 
difficult to ascertain what the models are latching onto for rain 
chances overnight. The zone of confluence may try to push further 
southeast, although the current southeast to south surface winds 
indicate a weak isallobaric response, and a strengthening ridge 
blocker. Time will tell which wins. 

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest swells will persist across the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight through at least Friday. From synopsis, a weak 
surface trough will sag southward towards the Florida Keys tonight
through Saturday. Ridging will rebuild across the southeastern 
United States Saturday night and Sunday, meanwhile, lower pressure
will move into the western Caribbean. Freshening east to 
southeast breezes are expected Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the EYW and MTH 
terminals through the forecast period. It is possible isolated to 
locally scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm 
could briefly move near the terminals later tonight into Thursday 
morning, however confidence in the occurrence and timing is too 
low for inclusion of VC or TEMPO SHRA/TS in the TAFS at this time.
The extended period of stronger winds looks to have finally ended
for the time being and speeds should now be mostly at or below 10
knots for the next few days. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  87  80  87 / 40 30 30 30 
Marathon  79  89  79  89 / 40 30 30 30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....TD
Data Collection......SD

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