352 
FXUS62 KKEY 101941
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
341 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - Hurricane Michael is moving northeastward across
the Florida Panhandle, leaving the Keys are in a slackening 
southerly flow. The combination of being in a Cuban shadow, and
possibly being in the moat region around the far periphery of
Michael. As a result, virtually no convective activity has been
present across the Keys. Skies remain a mix of clouds and sunshine 
due to layered upper level clouds streaming away from Michael. 
Conditions were very humid today, due to high temperatures in the 
upper 80s and dew points in the upper 70s.

Forecast - Hurricane Michael will continue to move northeastward
across the southeastern United States over the next couple of days
and then out in to the North Atlantic. Surface winds will continue
to slacken tonight and tomorrow as the Keys are left in an area of
a fairly flat pressure field. Winds will shift more southwest to
west over the next couple of days, becoming variable heading into
the weekend. Expect continued slightly above normal temperatures
and humid conditions. Rain chances will edge upwards tonight from
today's lows as the Keys will remain, for a couple more days, in 
a moist confluent cyclonic flow around the far periphery of the
departing hurricane. Will maintain low to mid rain chances through
this period.

High pressure will move into the eastern United States this
weekend, while lower pressure moves into the western Caribbean. As
a result, winds will firm up out of the east to southeast through
the weekend, and strengthen further early next week. Expect
slightly above normal temperatures and rain chances. Dew points
will ease back into the mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface winds will continue to relax tonight into tomorrow as
Hurricane Michael moves off further away from Keys waters. Winds
will remain light out of the south to southwest, gradually
shifting west over the next couple of days, then light and
variable heading into the weekend. High pressure will move into
the eastern United States this weekend, while lower pressure moves
into the western Caribbean. Winds will strengthen gradually out of
the east to southeast this weaken, and strengthen further next
week. Cautions and possibly advisories will be required for
portions of Keys waters for the far end of the marine forecast. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the forecast 
period. We will look for convection moving northward from Cuba late 
this afternoon, possibly impacting the terminals between 02 and 04Z. 
Southerly wind gusts up to 16-17 knots will diminish overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in 1870, a hurricane moved slowly through the Florida 
Straits producing hurricane-force winds in the Florida Keys. Also on 
this date but in 1909, the daily record rainfall of 3.18" was 
recorded. Precipitation records at Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  87  80  87 / 40 30 30 30 
Marathon  79  88  79  88 / 40 30 30 30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Collection......SD

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