148 
FXUS62 KKEY 101510
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1110 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - Major Hurricane Michael is nearing the panhandle and
drawing further away from the Florida Keys. Winds are trending
downwards across the Keys. The weakening southerly flow resulting
in a Cuban shadow, along with likely being in Michael moat region
has kept shower activity at near zero across the Florida Keys. 
Skies remain a mix of clouds and sun as layered high level clouds.

Short Term Update - Michael will make land fall over the Florida
Gulf coast this afternoon and pull further away from the Keys.
Local steering flow will continue to relax and steering flow will
shift more southwesterly. However, surface flow will remain
southerly and we will likely remain in Michael moat at least 
through this afternoon. Will shave pops down to a low chance with 
the main trigger being along a reverse cloud line and increasing 
southwesterly lower level confluent flow. Expect day time highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 with dew points a very muggy mid to 
upper 70s. 

&&

.MARINE...
Winds across Keys waters will continue to diminish this afternoon
as Hurricane Michael moves further north towards and into the
Florida Panhandle. Small craft advisories are only in place for
our deep Gulf zones and cautions west of the Seven Mile Bridge.
Adjusted cautions and advisories and initial winds and seas to
adjust for ongoing trends. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR expected to continue through tonight. The chance for showers or 
perhaps a thunderstorm in the vicinity of KEYW and KMTH will 
increase this afternoon. South winds at 1,000 to 2,000 feet were 
measured at 23 to 33 knots this morning, otherwise from 160-190 
degrees 8 to 13 knots at the surface with gusts 15 to 20 knots. 
These winds are expected to decrease tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in 1870, a hurricane moved slowly through the Florida 
Straits producing hurricane-force winds in the Florida Keys. Also on 
this date but in 1909, the daily record rainfall of 3.18" was 
recorded. Precipitation records at Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ033-034.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ055-
     075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....JR
Data Collection......BT

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest