845 
FXUS62 KKEY 100306
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1106 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
This evening's sounding sampled a deeply veering and energetic
profile. A discernible dry layer has developed below 850 mb which
has put the kibosh on convection. Barring any significant 
thermodynamic changes down low, ML inhibition should prevent
significant convective development. We lowered rain chances to
40%, and we would have gone lower, but the statistical consensus
is much higher. 

Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints are in the
upper 70s, making for a particularly humid October night.
Southeast to south winds range from 15 to 21 knots at the marine
observation platforms, tending higher across the western half of
the CWA. Winds are expected to slowly diminish towards sunset.
Conditions are on the mend. 

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect for all coastal waters of the
Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge. All Advisories have a
good chance of being cancelled early Wednesday morning as winds
continue to slacken. From synopsis, Major Hurricane Michael will 
move northward towards the Florida Panhandle tonight and 
Wednesday. Breezes will continue to diminish overnight and 
Wednesday, and by Thursday, gentle breezes are expected across all
coastal waters of the Florida Keys. 

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Terminal Forecast Discussion: VFR conditions are expected to 
prevail through the forecast period. There should remain a lull in 
the amount of showers and thunderstorms overnight, however some 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms could redevelop in some 
areas by the late night or early morning hours with a chance 
continuing through the day on Wednesday. Southeast winds should 
remain mostly in the 10 to 15 knots range with gusts 20 to 25 knots 
at times through much of the overnight, then becoming south by 
sunrise with speeds lowering to about 7 knots at MTH early in the 
day and dropping off to near 10 knots by late Wednesday at EYW. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  88  80  87 / 40 50 40 40 
Marathon  80  88  79  88 / 40 50 40 40 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ033>035- 044-054-055-074-075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Collection......SD

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