879 FXUS63 KJKL 110802 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 402 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 402 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018 Current conditions across eastern Kentucky feature a swath of rainfall streaming northward through the region. This tropical moisture continues to push north into the area ahead of the now land fallen and weakening Tropical Storm Micheal. At this time as well, the cold front is pushing across central Kentucky and will begin to push this swath of rainfall eastward bringing an end to the precip from west to east through the day today. In the meantime, in the predawn hours, this precip is quite slow to exit and some training of more moderate showers may persist through dawn before the front finally pushes the rainfall east. Any instability has been tapped and thus will only be dealing with moderate showers through the first part of the day. A few issues will be possible with minor flooding in the predawn hours until the front finally pushes through and shunts the rainfall eastward. Heading into the midday hours, models still support the cold front pushing through Kentucky and the rest of the precip by 00Z. Expect temperatures to fall through the morning hours and with skies beginning to clear up through the day, temps may warm up a few more degrees despite the CAA behind the front. Daytime highs will likely be reached by 18z. Decent gradient with the front will lead to strong wind gusts behind the front. Some northwest winds with gusts to 20 and 25 mph will be likely this afternoon. By tonight, clear skies will allow temperatures to drop in the 40s for lows and even some upper 30s. This will indeed be the first short of Fall temperatures. Winds remaining up a bit over night will likely be a bit too strong for frost development at this time. As well, the dry airmass moving in may keep fog from developing as the current pattern is quite a quick chance in airmass. Thus will keep fog and frost out of the forecast tonight. Heading into the day on Friday, with the northwest flow in place, will expect cooler temperatures in place. While skies will remain clear for much of the day, cloud cover will finally push into eastern Kentucky late day associated with a fast moving front. This will make for temperatures to struggle to get out of the 50s for highs. In addition, the fast moving front will bring another round of showers to the area by late day Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 406 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018 The majority of the long term period will feature an upper level CONUS-wide northern stream trough, with several progressive shortwaves. Dry conditions will dominate the first part of the extended until early Saturday morning. Rain chances will increase for areas north of the Mountain Parkway due to the passage of an upper level shortwave. A period of dry weather will then take hold again until a cold front approaches the Commonwealth Sunday afternoon. The best precipitation chances will be with the passage of this cold front Monday morning. The front will exit eastern Kentucky, ushering in drier conditions for Tuesday. Another upper level disturbance and surface cold front are slated to move through the Ohio Valley midweek, but uncertainty in this portion of the forecast is high due to model disagreement. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s, low 60s for the duration of the extended. Low temperatures will mainly be below normal through the period. However, Monday morning lows will increase to be near normal. The lowest temperatures expected for the period will occur Tuesday morning, dipping to the mid 30s in areas near the Bluegrass and in parts of the Cumberland Basin. These areas have the potential to see some frost as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018 As showers and a few thunderstorms continue to push east through the area overnight, ceilings and vis will be on the decline with deteriorating conditions through the dawn hours. These low cigs and vis will persist through midday. As the cold front pushes east through the region the low cigs and vis will slowly begin to improve in the afternoon as skies will even begin to clear out by the evening. The cold frontal passage through the region today will cause a wind shift to west and northwest. Expect some wind gusts up to 15 and 18 mph in the afternoon. Skies will begin to clear out across the entire area by the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER