642 FXUS63 KJKL 102016 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 416 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 416 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018 Short term portion of the forecast will be focused around an incoming cold front. Strong southerly flow ahead of the frontal passage led to morning showers across the region, which have now moved north of the CWA. Scattered to numerous clouds remain across the CWA, with another swath of rain expected to move in later this afternoon/evening nearer to the actual frontal passage. There will be a narrow window of instability this evening as it moves through, so did keep with thunder mention through the evening, cutting it off after 6Z, though there isn't enough to be concerned for any strong or severe storms. WPC is highlighting far eastern Kentucky as having the potential for heavy rain as the system moves through between 6 and 12Z tonight, with over 0.5 inches of rain possible. Though we are not expecting any flooding concerns, especially given several days of drying across the region, we will need to monitor this rainfall overnight in case there is some isolated concerns. Once the front moves through Thursday morning, pops will decrease from west to east, with all pops out of the CWA by Thursday evening. A much colder airmass will move in behind this frontal passage. After being above normal in temperatures for an extended period of time, we are now taking the turn to below normal temperatures. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. With clearing expected overnight Thursday night, temperatures will likely drop extensively, into the low 40s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 406 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018 The majority of the long term period will feature an upper level CONUS-wide northern stream trough, with several progressive shortwaves. Dry conditions will dominate the first part of the extended until early Saturday morning. Rain chances will increase for areas north of the Mountain Parkway due to the passage of an upper level shortwave. A period of dry weather will then take hold again until a cold front approaches the Commonwealth Sunday afternoon. The best precipitation chances will be with the passage of this cold front Monday morning. The front will exit eastern Kentucky, ushering in drier conditions for Tuesday. Another upper level disturbance and surface cold front are slated to move through the Ohio Valley midweek, but uncertainty in this portion of the forecast is high due to model disagreement. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s, low 60s for the duration of the extended. Low temperatures will mainly be below normal through the period. However, Monday morning lows will increase to be near normal. The lowest temperatures expected for the period will occur Tuesday morning, dipping to the mid 30s in areas near the Bluegrass and in parts of the Cumberland Basin. These areas have the potential to see some frost as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018 Rain has moved north of the region, with most sites now experiencing dry conditions and VFR skies. Can't rule out an isolated shower popping up this afternoon, but expect TAF sites to generally remain dry until this evening when rain and thunder chance are expected to increase again just ahead of the incoming frontal boundary. MVFR conditions are likely overnight with the incoming rain, though conditions could deteriorate briefly with any heavier showers. Thunder chances should taper off overnight, with rain expected to continue through much of the duration of the TAF period tomorrow. S to SSW winds under 10 knots are expected through the remainder of the day and overnight, before becoming more NWrly behind the cold frontal passage Thursday morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...JMW