294 
FXUS63 KJKL 100818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
418 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

Current conditions across the area feature cloud cover streaming
northward as a warm front will begin to develop and shift north.
Ahead of the front and even present on radar this hour, showers
have developed south of the TN border and are now beginning to
shift north ahead of the front. Heading into the day today,
showers will become more numerous as southerly flow increases.
With the assist of the front and additional instability, will
expect thunderstorms to develop by the mid morning to noon hours
with instability around 1000 J/KG by the afternoon. As well,
southerly winds will be a bit gusty at times with some 20 mph wind
gusts possible. The steering winds for this event are quite strong
and thus, with the precip being more progressive, the heavy
rainfall threat will be minimal. As well, the southerly component
of the winds to begin this event are more unfavorable due to the
downslope winds. With the current setup, precip amounts from the
entire event will be around an inch at most. As east Kentucky will
eventually be in the warm sector, high temperatures across the
area may crack 80 for one final time this season. 

The cold front will begin to approach the region tonight as some
additional moisture ahead of the front will be drawn northward
from Tropical Storm Micheal as it begins to shift to the east.
With the weakening of the front as it approaches the Appalachian
Range, the lack of instability will be apparent and will trend
down the chance of thunder by Thursday morning. However, along the
front, expect moderate rainfall through tonight and into the day
on Thursday. With the front passing through during the day on
Thursday, high temperatures may be realized midday across the
area. Highs will struggle to reach 70 as the cooler air filters in
behind the front. Precip will finally begin to exit the area by
Thursday evening. The model trends suggest this may even be sooner
for the end of the precip across eastern Kentucky. Overall, while
a moist air mass will be in place today and into Thursday morning,
the progressive nature and the breif period of downslope to begin
the event will lead to a low flood threat. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018

A cold front will be moving over eastern Kentucky to start the 
long term, bringing likely to categorical PoPs through Thursday 
evening. The front will then move to the southeast and surface 
high pressure will set up, resulting in much drier weather for the
end of the work week and into the start of the weekend. 
Meanwhile, the current track of Hurricane Michael keeps the storm 
moving over the Florida panhandle early Thursday and then over the
Carolinas Friday. Limited to no impacts are expected for eastern 
Kentucky at this time. Another cold front will approach the 
Commonwealth Sunday, increasing chances for showers for the start 
of next week. Models are coming into better agreement since 
yesterday; however, Superblend PoPs at the end of the period 
seemed a bit overdone, so decreased them from the given 
categorical on Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

High temperatures will be near normal Thursday, but cool down to 
below normal with FROPA through Saturday. Highs will be near 
normal before another cool down with frontal passage Tuesday. Low 
temperatures will be below normal for much of the extended, with 
the potential for ridge/valley temperature splits Friday through 
Sunday mornings. Some areas Saturday morning could see lows in the
upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period as cloud cover
will be on the increase through the night. With an approaching 
cold front combined with southerly tropical influence, the
increased cloud cover will keep the fog development to a minimum
with the exception of a few wisps. By dawn, showers will begin to
develop into the region with enough instability in place for 
thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening. Locations 
that see any thunderstorms development will at least see some MVFR
conditions set in and this has been shown at some of the sites 
with the increase in pops. Expect strong south winds through the 
day with 10 knot winds and a few gusts to 15 knots possible. The 
shower and thunderstorms will taper off a bit after 00Z. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...CGAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER