418 FXUS63 KJKL 100522 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 122 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 100 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018 Issued an update to the forecast to input the latest observations and trend them through the overnight hours. Cloud cover will be on the increase for tonight and will likely keep from fog development. UPDATE Issued at 1050 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 The forecast remains on track this evening. Did wind up reducing cloud cover a bit more through around 06z according to satellite and higher resolution model guidance trends. Some of the more sheltered valleys have taken advantage of the mostly clear skies, with mid 60s being reported. The coolest spots may dip briefly into the lower 60s over the next few hours, before clouds increase, allowing the cooler air to mix out. PoPs continue to look reasonable, with at least isolated showers threatening towards dawn as a mid-level short wave trough moves in aloft along with the aid of some weak isentropic lift in the 700-850 mb layer. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 804 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Freshened up the sky cover through the evening. Clouds had been prevalent during the day, but the latest satellite trends show some dissipation. Also allowed for an earlier ridge/valley split in the hourly temperatures through the evening, as is evident by the current observations. As clouds thicken for the second half of the night, the split will be mitigated. Did adjust some of the lows up a bit, especially where clouds will be thicker. Will assess PoPs a bit later this evening. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 431 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Kentucky is currently wedged between a low pressure center moving towards Iowa and a strong high pressure center off the Atlantic Coast. Warm return flow has once again infiltrated the state today, leading to well above normal temperatures. However, cirrus across much of the SE conus also made its way into the eastern portion of the state, putting a damper on the original forecasted highs for today. Much of the region is seeing highs in the low and mid 80s instead. As we head into the overnight, the cold front attached to the low pressure system to our west will continue to make its way eastward and towards western portion of the state. Expect clouds to be on the increase during the late night and into Wednesday morning as southerly flow gains strength. Do still expect some fog in the deepest river valleys to begin forming before the clouds have a chance to deter it, but as the airmass and grounds across the region have modified drier, it's impacts will be less than that of the night before. Moisture being drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico will result in rain chances impacting the SW portion of the CWA by daybreak. Pops will then spread across the CWA throughout the day, with temperatures still expected to rise into the low 80s even with cloud cover in place. Despite being in the near term portion of the forecast, there was a quite a bit of disagreement between the models about how high the pops will be during the day ahead of the system. Tried to do a compromise, keeping chance pops across the region throughout the afternoon, with likely pops mainly staying to our west closer to the actual frontal boundary. Pops will then increase to categorical by Wednesday night as the front makes its push into the CWA. Latest models are still trending towards some instability during the afternoon on Wednesday, so kept with a chance of thunder mention. Even though the cold front passes through on Wednesday night, the potential for a developing near- surface inversion will prevent CAPE and instability, so did not include mention of thunder after 3Z. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 403 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 A cold front will be moving over eastern Kentucky to start the long term, bringing likely to categorical PoPs through Thursday evening. The front will then move to the southeast and surface high pressure will set up, resulting in much drier weather for the end of the work week and into the start of the weekend. Meanwhile, the current track of Hurricane Michael keeps the storm moving over the Florida panhandle early Thursday and then over the Carolinas Friday. Limited to no impacts are expected for eastern Kentucky at this time. Another cold front will approach the Commonwealth Sunday, increasing chances for showers for the start of next week. Models are coming into better agreement since yesterday; however, Superblend PoPs at the end of the period seemed a bit overdone, so decreased them from the given categorical on Monday evening into Tuesday morning. High temperatures will be near normal Thursday, but cool down to below normal with FROPA through Saturday. Highs will be near normal before another cool down with frontal passage Tuesday. Low temperatures will be below normal for much of the extended, with the potential for ridge/valley temperature splits Friday through Sunday mornings. Some areas Saturday morning could see lows in the upper 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018 Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period as cloud cover will be on the increase through the night. With an approaching cold front combined with southerly tropical influence, the increased cloud cover will keep the fog development to a minimum with the exception of a few wisps. By dawn, showers will begin to develop into the region with enough instability in place for thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening. Locations that see any thunderstorms development will at least see some MVFR conditions set in and this has been shown at some of the sites with the increase in pops. Expect strong south winds through the day with 10 knot winds and a few gusts to 15 knots possible. The shower and thunderstorms will taper off a bit after 00Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER