961 
FXUS63 KJKL 092032
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
432 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 431 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018

Kentucky is currently wedged between a low pressure center moving
towards Iowa and a strong high pressure center off the Atlantic
Coast. Warm return flow has once again infiltrated the state
today, leading to well above normal temperatures. However, cirrus
across much of the SE conus also made its way into the eastern 
portion of the state, putting a damper on the original forecasted
highs for today. Much of the region is seeing highs in the low and
mid 80s instead.

As we head into the overnight, the cold front attached to the low
pressure system to our west will continue to make its way eastward
and towards western portion of the state. Expect clouds to be on 
the increase during the late night and into Wednesday morning as
southerly flow gains strength. Do still expect some fog in the 
deepest river valleys to begin forming before the clouds have a 
chance to deter it, but as the airmass and grounds across the 
region have modified drier, it's impacts will be less than that of
the night before.

Moisture being drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico will result in
rain chances impacting the SW portion of the CWA by daybreak. Pops
will then spread across the CWA throughout the day, with
temperatures still expected to rise into the low 80s even with
cloud cover in place. Despite being in the near term portion of 
the forecast, there was a quite a bit of disagreement between the
models about how high the pops will be during the day ahead of 
the system. Tried to do a compromise, keeping chance pops across 
the region throughout the afternoon, with likely pops mainly 
staying to our west closer to the actual frontal boundary. Pops 
will then increase to categorical by Wednesday night as the front 
makes its push into the CWA. Latest models are still trending 
towards some instability during the afternoon on Wednesday, so 
kept with a chance of thunder mention. Even though the cold front 
passes through on Wednesday night, the potential for a developing 
near- surface inversion will prevent CAPE and instability, so did 
not include mention of thunder after 3Z. 


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018

A cold front will be moving over eastern Kentucky to start the 
long term, bringing likely to categorical PoPs through Thursday 
evening. The front will then move to the southeast and surface 
high pressure will set up, resulting in much drier weather for the
end of the work week and into the start of the weekend. 
Meanwhile, the current track of Hurricane Michael keeps the storm 
moving over the Florida panhandle early Thursday and then over the
Carolinas Friday. Limited to no impacts are expected for eastern 
Kentucky at this time. Another cold front will approach the 
Commonwealth Sunday, increasing chances for showers for the start 
of next week. Models are coming into better agreement since 
yesterday; however, Superblend PoPs at the end of the period 
seemed a bit overdone, so decreased them from the given 
categorical on Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

High temperatures will be near normal Thursday, but cool down to 
below normal with FROPA through Saturday. Highs will be near 
normal before another cool down with frontal passage Tuesday. Low 
temperatures will be below normal for much of the extended, with 
the potential for ridge/valley temperature splits Friday through 
Sunday mornings. Some areas Saturday morning could see lows in the
upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018

With high pressure the dominating factor today, skies have
remained mostly clear other than some cirrus that should pose no 
threats. VFR conditions are expected to remain through the day and
overnight. Some valley fog may develop overnight again, but it 
has been progressively less each of the past nights as the 
airmass has modified drier. Do not expect this fog to impact TAF 
sites. A cold front will approach the region on Wednesday. This 
will result in increasing clouds and low end rain chances to end 
out the TAF period tomorrow. Clouds should generally remain VFR, 
though there is the potential that some CIGS could drop to MVFR 
mainly in the SW by the end of the TAF period. Winds will range
from the E to the SE today, generally under 10 knots, lessoning 
overnight with loss of daytime heating.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...CGAL
AVIATION...JMW