524 FXUS63 KJKL 092003 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 403 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 159 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Made several updates over the last few hours to adjust temperatures back to the current observations as they were running several degrees to warm. This has also resulted in a drop of the afternoon high temperatures by several degrees as well, with most locations now forecast to hit the mid-80s. Wouldn't be surprised, however, if some locations still fell a bit short to this as well. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was also sent out to change high temp wording for today. UPDATE Issued at 938 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Forecast is in good shape this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast for temps, dew points, and winds was on track with the current conditions. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. Also sent out a new forecast package to remove morning fog wording. UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Issued an update to the forecast to input the latest observations and trend them through the mid morning hours. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Current conditions across the region feature high pressure continuing to remain in control. Mainly clear skies will remain in place with the exception of some cirrus moving into the area from the south. This cirrus will continue to increase in coverage through the day today. Beginning this morning, fog in the valleys will slowly dissipate by mid morning as the fog burns off. With the drier air in place, the morning fog is not expected to be as dense. Heading through the day, increased southerly flow with the approach of a front to the west will allow for increased winds into the afternoon with some gusts to 15 mph at times. With this as well, high temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and may break record highs at JKL and LOZ. Heading into tonight, the night will likely begin with mostly clear skies but with increased southerly flow and an approaching front from the west, cloud cover will be on the increase through the night. While this will stop any fog development, showers will begin to develop into the area Wednesday morning. As the front approaches from the west, more tropical moisture will be drawn northward. While some instability will be present through Wednesday afternoon, the approaching front will weaken a bit against the high pressure in the east. The main threat will be the tropical moisture streaming northward as Hurricane Michal will be coming ashore in the Florida Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Thus have put thunder in the grids for Wednesday but the threat to watch will the heavy rainfall potential with 2 inch PWATs forecasted. However, the feature is forecasted to be quite progressive and thus a flood threat is not anticipated at this time. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 403 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 A cold front will be moving over eastern Kentucky to start the long term, bringing likely to categorical PoPs through Thursday evening. The front will then move to the southeast and surface high pressure will set up, resulting in much drier weather for the end of the work week and into the start of the weekend. Meanwhile, the current track of Hurricane Michael keeps the storm moving over the Florida panhandle early Thursday and then over the Carolinas Friday. Limited to no impacts are expected for eastern Kentucky at this time. Another cold front will approach the Commonwealth Sunday, increasing chances for showers for the start of next week. Models are coming into better agreement since yesterday; however, Superblend PoPs at the end of the period seemed a bit overdone, so decreased them from the given categorical on Monday evening into Tuesday morning. High temperatures will be near normal Thursday, but cool down to below normal with FROPA through Saturday. Highs will be near normal before another cool down with frontal passage Tuesday. Low temperatures will be below normal for much of the extended, with the potential for ridge/valley temperature splits Friday through Sunday mornings. Some areas Saturday morning could see lows in the upper 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 With high pressure the dominating factor today, skies have remained mostly clear other than some cirrus that should pose no threats. VFR conditions are expected to remain through the day and overnight. Some valley fog may develop overnight again, but it has been progressively less each of the past nights as the airmass has modified drier. Do not expect this fog to impact TAF sites. A cold front will approach the region on Wednesday. This will result in increasing clouds and low end rain chances to end out the TAF period tomorrow. Clouds should generally remain VFR, though there is the potential that some CIGS could drop to MVFR mainly in the SW by the end of the TAF period. Winds will range from the E to the SE today, generally under 10 knots, lessoning overnight with loss of daytime heating. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...JMW