672 FXUS63 KJKL 091814 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 214 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 159 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Made several updates over the last few hours to adjust temperatures back to the current observations as they were running several degrees to warm. This has also resulted in a drop of the afternoon high temperatures by several degrees as well, with most locations now forecast to hit the mid-80s. Wouldn't be surprised, however, if some locations still fell a bit short to this as well. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was also sent out to change high temp wording for today. UPDATE Issued at 938 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Forecast is in good shape this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast for temps, dew points, and winds was on track with the current conditions. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. Also sent out a new forecast package to remove morning fog wording. UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Issued an update to the forecast to input the latest observations and trend them through the mid morning hours. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Current conditions across the region feature high pressure continuing to remain in control. Mainly clear skies will remain in place with the exception of some cirrus moving into the area from the south. This cirrus will continue to increase in coverage through the day today. Beginning this morning, fog in the valleys will slowly dissipate by mid morning as the fog burns off. With the drier air in place, the morning fog is not expected to be as dense. Heading through the day, increased southerly flow with the approach of a front to the west will allow for increased winds into the afternoon with some gusts to 15 mph at times. With this as well, high temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and may break record highs at JKL and LOZ. Heading into tonight, the night will likely begin with mostly clear skies but with increased southerly flow and an approaching front from the west, cloud cover will be on the increase through the night. While this will stop any fog development, showers will begin to develop into the area Wednesday morning. As the front approaches from the west, more tropical moisture will be drawn northward. While some instability will be present through Wednesday afternoon, the approaching front will weaken a bit against the high pressure in the east. The main threat will be the tropical moisture streaming northward as Hurricane Michal will be coming ashore in the Florida Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Thus have put thunder in the grids for Wednesday but the threat to watch will the heavy rainfall potential with 2 inch PWATs forecasted. However, the feature is forecasted to be quite progressive and thus a flood threat is not anticipated at this time. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 435 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 The models are in fairly good agreement aloft through the first part of the extended before they start to deviate from each other. They all depict the long awaited pattern change that will finally usher in seasonable temperatures for the area. This arrives in the form of a strong trough pivoting through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday night driving falling heights through Kentucky. At the same time, the upper levels of Hurricane Michael will be passing by to the southeast further shunting the Southeast ridge away from the area. This action will result in a more normal weather pattern for this time of year. Specifically, the amplified mid level flow will bring troughing conditions to the eastern half of the nation through the rest of the week and into the weekend with a couple of reinforcing short waves and energy impulses. The next one of interest will pass through by Saturday morning. After this, the pattern shifts enough that eastern Kentucky will be placed in fairly fast mid level southwest flow with most of the energy staying north of the area until late in the period when another trough moves into the region from the Plains - stronger and slower in the GFS than the ECMWF. Given the good model agreement through the first part of the weekend and enough similarities later on - favor a general model blend with no large scale changes needed. Sensible weather will see the fruits of a potent cold front ushering in true fall weather and temperatures. Showers (and a small chance for thunder early) will last through Wednesday evening and into Thursday primarily driven by the front with some contribution of moisture from Michael's passage to the southeast. Temperatures with the rain Wednesday night will remain on the mild side of normal, but readings on Thursday then struggle to rebound too far into the low 70s despite the end of the rain and a return of some sunshine late in the west. Temperatures fall much further on Thursday night with low to mid 40s common by morning and daytime highs only in the low 60s most places. Readings will be at their lowest in the sheltered valleys Friday night where upper 30s are expected and some patchy frost cannot be completely ruled out. Most places will settle in the lower 40s with temperatures moderating through the rest of the weekend and into Monday. Post frontal high pressure departs to the east on Sunday with return flow bringing in slightly warmer temps and more moisture. Low pressure will consolidate over the Southern Plains later that night and approaches Kentucky for Monday bringing renewed chances for showers to our area to start the next work week. A cold front associated with this could be our doorstep by the end of the period with another shot of colder weather trailing behind. Welcome to autumn - finally the weather will match the calendar! Did not make too many changes to the SuperBlend starting point except to open up more of a ridge to valley temperature split for the nights through the weekend and into Monday morning. As for PoPs, did sweep them out a bit quicker later Thursday and minimized chances after that through Sunday morning - for most. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 With high pressure the dominating factor today, skies have remained mostly clear other than some cirrus that should pose no threats. VFR conditions are expected to remain through the day and overnight. Some valley fog may develop overnight again, but it has been progressively less each of the past nights as the airmass has modified drier. Do not expect this fog to impact TAF sites. A cold front will approach the region on Wednesday. This will result in increasing clouds and low end rain chances to end out the TAF period tomorrow. Clouds should generally remain VFR, though there is the potential that some CIGS could drop to MVFR mainly in the SW by the end of the TAF period. Winds will range from the E to the SE today, generally under 10 knots, lessoning overnight with loss of daytime heating. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JMW