563 FXUS62 KJAX 110753 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 353 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... .NEAR TERM /Today-Tonight/... Today...Strong SW winds across SE GA on the south side of TS Michael will continue to weaken and expect to drop the Tropical Storm Warnings early this morning, but may need to replace with a Wind Advisory for some brief gusts close to 40 mph until the mid- morning hours. Further south across NE FL a few isolated showers and breezy conditions will end early this morning with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. Main story later today will be the near record heat in the breezy offshore Westerly flow which will push Max Temps into the upper 80s and lower 90s and near Record High Temps. Record Max Temps for October 11th... JAX 91/1959...GNV 93/2009...AMG 90/2014...SSI 90/1959 Tonight...Trof extending SW from TS Michael will move offshore and will become a drier and slightly cooler NW flow with skies becoming clear and lows actually expected to fall into the middle to upper 50s across inland SE GA/Suwannee River Valley and 60s across NE FL/coastal SE GA and near 70 along coastal NE FL. .SHORT TERM /Friday-Sunday/... Fri/Sat...Trof pushes offshore and High pressure builds to the Carolinas and will be mainly clear and dry with near seasonable temps through this period. Max Temps generally in the lower to middle 80s and Lows will be the coolest in several months with widespread lower to middle 50s inland expected Fri Night and upper 50s Sat Night inland. Coastal locations will be closer to 60 degrees both nights. Sunday... High pressure ridge nudges offshore north of the region with flow becoming onshore and expect a warming trend to above normal temps with Highs in the mid to upper 80s and Widespread Lows in the 60s. Airmass still too dry to support any coastal showers yet and mainly clear skies will continue to prevail except for some daytime fair weather Cumulus. .LONG TERM /Monday-Wednesday/... Long-range models introduce some widely scattered showers and possible storms into the forecast on Mon-Tue as onshore flow at the surface combines with a more moist SE to S steering flow aloft. Temps will return to well above normal levels with highs near 90 inland and mid/upper 80s at the coast. Not as much confidence in forecast into Wednesday as some models bring weakening frontal boundary into the region from the NW while others keep just a warm/moist airmass in place. Overall still expect above normal temps on Wed with some scattered showers and isolated storms. && .AVIATION... MVFR ceilings and isolated showers will prevail at the regional terminals through around 12Z. Sustained southerly surface winds of 15-20 knots are expected, with frequent gusts to 25 knots at the northeast Florida terminals. Higher gusts of 30-35 knots will be possible at SSI through around 12Z. VFR conditions should prevail area wide by 15Z, with a few lingering showers possible at GNV through around 18Z. Surface winds will veer to a southwesterly direction during the morning hours, with frequent gusts of 20-25 knots expected through around 21Z. Surface winds will then become westerly and diminish by the early evening hours. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories will likely need to continue today even after the Tropical Storm Warnings are cancelled in the strong SW offshore flow but will fall to W-NW 15-20 knots and Small Craft Exercise Caution levels tonight then as the High pressure builds north of the region expect North winds 10 to 15 knots or less this weekend becoming NE to E 10-15 knots or less early next week with no headlines expected. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of rip currents as winds become offshore and surf/breakers fall into the 2-4 ft range today. Coastal Flood: Offshore Wind shift to the SW then W should lower high tide levels to Action stage or below at tidal locations and will drop the Coastal Flood Advisory with the morning package. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier airmass will lower humidities into the 30-40% range for Friday and Saturday but will remain above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Heavy rainfall bands remained just North and West of SE GA so no local river flooding expected, while heavier rainfall across Middle GA will bring elevated water levels to the Altamaha River Basin by the weekend. && .CLIMATE... All-time Record Warm Minimums Broken or Tied at all four climate sites, while all-time record High Wind Gust was set at Alma GA. See Record Event Reports (RERs) for more details. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 56 81 53 / 30 0 0 0 SSI 89 65 81 62 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 93 64 85 58 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 94 70 84 64 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 92 64 87 56 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 93 66 88 58 / 20 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Tropical Storm Warning for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley- Charlton-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols- Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Hess/Nelson