334 FXUS62 KJAX 110132 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 932 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Michael continues to pull northeast but still impressive pressure at 8 pm advisory at 955 mb and 90 mph winds 20 mi southwest of Albany. Strongest winds over parts of GA continue at about 25-40 mph with higher gusts...then forecast to decrease toward early morning to about 15-25 mph. Rain chances will continue to stay elevated as some rainbands pivot over the area but made some minor tweaks to lower the chances for rest of tonight. No changes to the flood watch at this but anticipate that will be good to expire late tonight. Based on radar trends and guidance we have trimmed parts of the tornado watch for northeast FL as indications show shear and instability as flow turns south and southwest. && .AVIATION... Rainbands will continue to pivot through the region but best chances of stronger bands and showers will be northwest of the TAFs the rest of the night period. Showers may produce brief period of IFR conditions. Otherwise prevailing VFR cigs and MVFR cigs are expected much of the night before drier air advects into the region Thursday morning and clearing conditions. South winds will be near 15-20 kt and gusty tonight. Another concern will be for strong winds in convection and have tempo groups at most terminals for wind gusts to about 35 knots overnight. Winds will be westerly on Thursday increasing up to 15-18G25-30kt by late morning and aftn. && .MARINE... Strong southerly winds will continue tonight and become southwest as Michael pushes north and then northeast of the area waters. No changes to the current advisory for the Fl waters and the TS Warning for the GA waters. The tornado watch was cancelled as well for the marine waters as best forcing remains to the northwest. Rip Currents and Coastal Flooding: Rough surf and parallel winds to shoreline will create hazards conditions along the surf zone. Rip current risk remains high. Coastal Flood concerns are diminishing based on reports from gauges so anticipate that the advisory may be to be dropped at the next forecast update early Thursday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 76 85 60 84 / 100 40 0 0 SSI 77 87 65 83 / 50 20 0 0 JAX 78 91 65 85 / 50 10 0 0 SGJ 78 89 71 85 / 20 10 0 0 GNV 78 90 64 88 / 50 10 0 0 OCF 77 90 67 89 / 50 20 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Warning for Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Suwannee. High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns- Inland Duval-Inland St. Johns. GA...Tropical Storm Warning for Appling-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton- Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Echols-Inland Camden- Inland Glynn-Pierce-Ware-Wayne. High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn. Hurricane Warning for Atkinson-Coffee-Jeff Davis. Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Thursday for Appling-Atkinson- Bacon-Coffee-Jeff Davis. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Shashy/Nelson/Hess