017 FXUS62 KJAX 102150 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 550 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE THIS EVENING... ...ELEVATED TO MODERATE WIND THREAT DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM MICHAEL... .SHORT TERM... Rainbands will continue to rotate through the forecast area through this evening as Major Hurricane Michael moves just northwest and north of the forecast area. A tornado, heavy rainfall and wind threat exist through later tonight, with the heaviest rainfall amounts over the northwest zones. The wind, rainfall and tornado threat will slowly fade by early Thursday morning as the circulation lifts north and then northeast. Improving conditions on Thursday as much drier air wraps around the srn part of the system and still gusty conditions expected from westerly winds up to 15-25 mph and gusts up to around 35 mph. Dry air will continue push through the region Thursday night into Friday as a dry cool front pushes through with nil rain chances. More seasonal temps Friday night and Saturday with lows in the upper 50s to near 60 and highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s. .LONG TERM... Sunday...onshore flow expected with a small chance of showers coming of the Atlantic. Temps warm to above normal levels in the mid to upper 80s, with a few near 90 readings over inland NE FL. Monday-Wednesday...Onshore flow and deeper moisture aloft along with above normal temps with scattered showers and isolated storms possible for Monday. A cold front will move into the region late Monday night and Tuesday which may stall over the region and support increased rain chances late Tuesday and Wednesday. && ..AVIATION...Bands of storms will continue to pivot across the area as Hurricane Michael moves northeast across the southeast U.S. and gradually weakens tonight. Main concern will be for strong winds in addition to heavy rain and have tempo groups at most terminals for wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots in addition to ocnl TSRA and MVFR. Brief period of IFR possible in the heavier rain bands. && .MARINE... Hurricane Michael will continue to pull northwest and north of the coastal waters into Thursday. Rain bands will increase in frequency early this evening and will be squally with waterspouts possible. Tropical Storm Warnings remain posted for the southeast Georgia coastal waters through early Thursday afternoon, with Small Craft Advisories in place for the northeast Florida waters. The strongest winds over our waters will occur overnight through the early morning hours on Thursday, as sustained winds shift to southerly by this evening and strengthen to 25-30 knots with occasional gusts to around 40 knots. Higher winds will be possible within squalls embedded in the outer rain bands. Seas will peak in the 7-111 foot range overnight, with occasional seas up to 14 feet possible well offshore. Rain bands should depart the coastal waters during the morning hours on Thursday as Michael accelerates northeastward towards the Savannah River Valley, with offshore winds developing and gradually subsiding during the afternoon hours. Seas will fall back to Caution levels as Michael moves through eastern North Carolina. Offshore winds will prevail Thursday night and Friday and will turn northerly by Friday night as our local pressure gradient continues to loosen. High pressure will then build southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Saturday, with onshore winds developing over our waters this weekend. Coastal Flooding/Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents will continue through Thursday, with rough and dangerous surf conditions prevailing with breakers generally in the 5-7 foot range. Minor flooding will be possible during the morning high tide along the Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River basin through this evening, mainly due to strong onshore winds combining with high astronomical tides created by the new moon cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 76 85 60 84 / 100 40 0 0 SSI 77 87 65 83 / 70 20 0 0 JAX 78 91 65 85 / 60 10 0 0 SGJ 78 89 71 85 / 40 10 0 0 GNV 78 90 64 88 / 70 10 0 0 OCF 77 90 67 89 / 60 20 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Warning for Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Suwannee. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns- Inland Duval-Inland St. Johns. GA...Tropical Storm Warning for Appling-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton- Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Echols-Inland Camden- Inland Glynn-Pierce-Ware-Wayne. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn. Hurricane Warning for Atkinson-Coffee-Jeff Davis. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Appling-Atkinson- Bacon-Coffee-Jeff Davis. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Shashy/Peterson/Bricker