065 FXUS62 KJAX 092133 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 533 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 ...MICHAEL NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...MAIN IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... .NEAR TERM... Rest of today into tonight, showers and bands of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue to lift northward, pushing through southeast GA and up to the north of our area late evening and overnight. Isolated to scattered showers will continue after midnight, as deep tropical moisture pumps into the area from the south and southeast. On Wednesday, numerous to widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms will overspread the region from the south as Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall late Wed in the FL Panhandle and then lift northeast through GA Wed night. At least a couple of more defined rainbands will probably setup, one over the northeast zones lifting northward and others over inland areas. Outer rainbands will contain the threat of severe squalls with damaging winds/isolated tornadoes along with heavy rainfall. The severe threat will likely be in the aftn as we get some heating boosting SBCAPE to about 1000-1500 J/kg. Increasing helicity values will push into the western zones late in the day toward the evening but cloud cover and limited heating may limit, to some extent the tornado threat. Rainfall amounts generally in the 0.5 to 1 inch range with locally higher amounts near 2 inches if bands training over the same area. Best chances of tropical storm force winds will be over the northwest zones and nrn marine waters late Wed. Max temps should still be able to reach into the middle to upper 80s prior to the onset of more rainfall/severe weather conds by the afternoon hours. .SHORT TERM.../Wednesday Night through Thursday/... As Michael tracks toward the Northeast across GA Wednesday evening into night, the best potential for widespread winds over the forecast area will be realized, with strongest winds Suwannee valley and SE GA. The potential for a band of strong wind producing showers/storms may extend South/Southeast from the main wind core through the night. Michael is expected to be North of the forecast area Thursday morning into early afternoon, with best wind potential over SE GA. Still can not rule out a gusty convective band extending South of the system. The system is expected to pull further to the Northeast Thursday afternoon, as drier air filters into the region from the Northwest behind it. The gradient winds behind the system will keep breezy conditions going into Thursday evening. Temperatures are expected to trend above normal this period. .LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Tuesday/... A drier Northwest flow for Thursday night into Friday, but gradient flow between the departing tropical system to the Northeast and high pressure building from the West could keep the area somewhat breezy. Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday, with below normal readings Friday night. High pressure will build to the North on Saturday and to the Northeast on Sunday, bringing an onshore flow. While a coastal shower can not be ruled out Saturday and Sunday, much of the weekend should be dry. The high will move the Northeast then East early next week, as a weak cold front pushes through from the Northwest Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures should be above normal over the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... Scattered to numerous showers will continue to pivot north to northwest across portions of the area through this evening. Gusty winds up to 30-40 kt possible with rest of the activity and brief IFR will be possible. Bulk of the showers will move into southeast GA from about 21z to 04z with lingering isolated to scattered showers over northeast FL. Activity will diminish a bit after 05z/06z becoming isolated to widely scattered. More widespread rain-bands and showers expected on Wednesday as Michael nears the forecast region. Winds will be east to southeast 12-18 kt and gusty... decreasing overnight and picking up again Wed from the southeast. && .Marine... Area waters will be between high pressure to the Northeast and Hurricane Michael to the Southwest Tonight, with the enhanced pressure gradient yielding elevated conditions. Stronger wind gusts will be expected in and near showers and storms. Elevated winds and seas will then be expected through at least Thursday due to Michael. Refer to the latest advisory on Hurricane Michael issued by the National Hurricane Center. High pressure builds to the Northwest then North late in the period. Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents will continue through at least Wednesday, with rough and dangerous surf conditions prevailing as breakers gradually build to 6-7 feet this afternoon at the southeast Georgia beaches and 7-8 feet at the northeast Florida beaches. Minor flooding will be possible during the morning high tides along the Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River basin through at Wednesday, mainly due to strong onshore winds combining with high astronomical tides created by the new moon cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 87 76 90 / 30 70 70 60 SSI 77 85 78 90 / 60 60 50 50 JAX 77 88 79 91 / 20 60 30 40 SGJ 77 87 77 92 / 20 60 20 30 GNV 76 87 78 91 / 20 60 60 40 OCF 77 88 77 91 / 20 60 60 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Warning for Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Suwannee. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns- Inland Duval-Inland St. Johns. GA...Tropical Storm Warning for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley- Charlton-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols- Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Shashy/23/Bricker