726 FXUS64 KJAN 101614 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1114 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Updated for morning discussion. && .DISCUSSION... A few light showers persist across portions of our area. This is in association with the incoming cold front that is just off to the west. This activity has struggled against the drier air and subsidence related to our location on the western side of Major Hurricane Michael. This will continue to be the case through the remainder of the day. I can't rule out that some showers could develop a little more in the east during daytime heating but current trends and latest CAM guidance indicates little in the way of activity. Thus, I have decreased POPs in this region. The aforementioned cold front should continue to track east through the day, resulting in drier air moving into the region. The eastern part of the forecast area could also see a shower or two on the far outskirts of Michael as it makes landfall today in the Florida Gulf Coast/Big Bend region. Going forecast needed some adjustment for POPs but otherwise conditions today should remain in the 80s. /28/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: Convective precipitation along the leading edge of a mid level trough continues to persist over much of the ArkLaMiss Delta region early this morning. Meanwhile, sinking air around the periphery of Hurricane Michael is helping to keep the remainder of the forecast area rain-free for the most part, and this minimum is reflected by relatively drier air in the precipitable water analysis. The current convection is struggling to move east into the subsidence regime, but expect diurnal destabilization to help increase the potential for isolated/scattered showers/storms later today. Any storms are expected to be sub-severe with locally heavy rainfall expected to be the main impact given the 2+ inch precipitable water airmass. For tonight, drier air will advect into the forecast area behind Michael as it moves away from the forecast area. This airmass change will allow low temperatures to fall into the 50s over northwest portions of the area for the first time in months. /EC/ Thursday through next Tuesday: Expect the region to remain in the western & dry side of Michael. The synoptic pattern will consist of Michael (likely a tropical storm moving through Georgia & the Carolinas) gradually phasing with a trough & cold front moving through the Great Lakes down to the Gulf Coast. Strong surface ridge will be building through the northern Plains & mid-lower Mississippi Valley. This strong ridging will help much drier air & the first real pleasant taste of fall to move in beginning on Thursday. PWs will finally plummet closer to a half an inch & low-level thermal temperatures will fall (~i.e. lower teens C. @ 925mb). Expect the grip of the the early fall heat to finally be scoured out as remnants of Michael breaks down the lingering strong subtropical ridge. As zonal flow develops across the southeast & a shortwave trough digs through the mid-Mississippi Valley into Friday, expect the surface ridge axis to move across the mid-South to mid-Mississippi Valley. Expect near normal to slightly above highs in the mid-upper 70s Thursday & Friday, with some temperatures near 80 degrees in the Pine Belt. Lows should fall into the low 50s to even upper 40s north of I-20, especially on Thursday & Friday nights. Only thing that could limit radiational cooling is some pressure gradient & some wind around, especially Thursday morning. As mid-level ridge builds east across the south-central Gulf of Mexico, low-level thermal temperatures will increase as well. Expect temperatures to increase ~5 degrees above normal into the low 80s into late weekend (i.e. Saturday-Sunday). With continued southwest flow, expect remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio in the eastern Pacific to be gradually picked up & phase with a developing trough & cold front diving down through the Plains. This moisture increase (i.e. 850mb Theta E closer to 330-335K & PWs closer to 2 inches) will help increase rain chances & clouds into late weekend & early next week (i.e. Sunday-Monday). A majority of global consensus keep most moisture to the north but do bring some rain chances in early next week prior to another front diving down. Expect this front to usher in the coolest air of the season, with highs possibly struggling to reach the mid-upper 60s across the northwest half into early-mid week next week (i.e. Tuesday). We could have a brief reprieve in rain chances as shortwave ridge builds across. However, continue southwest flow aloft & another trough/cold front could help spark increasing clouds, rain chances & even cooler temperatures into mid-week next week. There are some model inconsistencies that will have to be ironed out as we get closer. /DC/ && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF discussion: A cold front bringing SHRA/TSRA to western portions of the area will affect the GLH to GWO area, but sinking air around the periphery of Hurricane Michael will make it tough for the precipitation to move much farther east. There will be a considerable amount of mainly morning MVFR/IFR stratus developing that could impact all sites. As drier air moves in later this afternoon and tonight, VFR conditions will prevail. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 86 60 76 51 / 25 8 0 0 Meridian 83 64 78 50 / 33 23 0 0 Vicksburg 84 59 76 49 / 4 5 1 0 Hattiesburg 86 65 81 52 / 25 13 1 0 Natchez 83 60 76 52 / 3 5 1 0 Greenville 83 57 74 48 / 13 6 1 0 Greenwood 84 57 73 49 / 26 11 1 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 28