263 FXUS64 KJAN 100604 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 104 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Updated for 06Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF discussion: A cold front bringing SHRA/TSRA to western portions of the area will affect the GLH area, but sinking air around the periphery of Hurricane Michael will make it tough for the preciptation to move much farther east. There will be a considerable amount of mainly morning MVFR/IFR stratus developing that could impact all sites. The greater potential for IFR ceilings will be in the HBG/PIB area. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... There are some on going showers in the eastern AR area that are pushing into our western region. PoPs were adjusted and increased in these areas and are expected to be ongoing even after 06z into the early morning. Scattered clouds are across the region this evening with lows being in the lower 70s. /JE/ Prior discussion below: Models continue to be consistent in track of Michael through the eastern Gulf into the Panhandle of Florida by Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile to the west, a chunk of energy will continue to shear out to the northeast as the overall trough crawls east. This ejecting wave will continue to support a surface frontal passage across the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. As Michael approaches the coast Wednesday, shortwave ridging over the forecast area between Michael and the approaching trough from the west will maintain warm air aloft/subsidence which will minimize much of a precipitation threat early. However by afternoon, tighter pressure gradient in the east will support low level convergence and some banded convective structures. Further west, convergence along boundary appears much less impressive, but cannot rule out scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Other than a few showers continuing along the boundary as it moves east, the majority of the convection will wane quickly after sunset. The shallow cool airmass will completely overspread the area after midnight with a rather pleasant/cool day in store for Thursday. Despite a weak pressure gradient remaining across the area Thursday night, dryness of the airmass (dewpoints in the 40s) will support decoupling and prime radiational cooling conditions with clear skies. Would not be surprised to see minimums in the 40s across the north around sunrise Friday morning. Continued southwest mid level flow will help the shallow cool airmass shift east rapidly into Friday night while another storm system gathers strength to the west. Moisture, associated with Sergio, will move across northern Mexico and into TX Saturday as the northern stream drops a potent wave south into the northern High Plains out of Canada. While the majority of the moisture will be shunted to the north as these systems phase, the associated cold front will usher a cooler/deeper airmass into the region Sunday into Sunday night. Highs over some parts of the area may not rise out of the 60s Monday./26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 64 76 51 74 / 16 2 1 1 Meridian 67 79 52 76 / 34 2 1 1 Vicksburg 62 77 51 76 / 9 1 1 1 Hattiesburg 68 82 54 78 / 19 1 0 1 Natchez 64 77 53 77 / 9 1 1 1 Greenville 59 74 50 71 / 14 1 1 1 Greenwood 60 74 49 72 / 26 1 1 1 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$