084 FXUS64 KJAN 100258 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 958 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... There are some on going showers in the eastern AR area that are pushing into our western region. PoPs were adjusted and increased in these areas and are expected to be ongoing even after 06z into the early morning. Scattered clouds are across the region this evening with lows being in the lower 70s. /JE/ Prior discussion below: Models continue to be consistent in track of Michael through the eastern Gulf into the Panhandle of Florida by Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile to the west, a chunk of energy will continue to shear out to the northeast as the overall trough crawls east. This ejecting wave will continue to support a surface frontal passage across the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. As Michael approaches the coast Wednesday, shortwave ridging over the forecast area between Michael and the approaching trough from the west will maintain warm air aloft/subsidence which will minimize much of a precipitation threat early. However by afternoon, tighter pressure gradient in the east will support low level convergence and some banded convective structures. Further west, convergence along boundary appears much less impressive, but cannot rule out scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Other than a few showers continuing along the boundary as it moves east, the majority of the convection will wane quickly after sunset. The shallow cool airmass will completely overspread the area after midnight with a rather pleasant/cool day in store for Thursday. Despite a weak pressure gradient remaining across the area Thursday night, dryness of the airmass (dewpoints in the 40s) will support decoupling and prime radiational cooling conditions with clear skies. Would not be surprised to see minimums in the 40s across the north around sunrise Friday morning. Continued southwest mid level flow will help the shallow cool airmass shift east rapidly into Friday night while another storm system gathers strength to the west. Moisture, associated with Sergio, will move across northern Mexico and into TX Saturday as the northern stream drops a potent wave south into the northern High Plains out of Canada. While the majority of the moisture will be shunted to the north as these systems phase, the associated cold front will usher a cooler/deeper airmass into the region Sunday into Sunday night. Highs over some parts of the area may not rise out of the 60s Monday./26/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: VFR conds were observed areawide at 2330Z and wl cont through 08Z. The exception is at GLH where SHRA activity may spread into the area close to 06Z and briefly reduce conditions. After 08Z MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to build back in over the TAF sites. These lower flight conditions wl again be slow to improve Wednesday morning in the east but a cold front will move across the area from the nw bringing a wind shift followed by improving conditions. VFR conds are expected areawide by 19Z. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 87 64 76 / 4 29 16 2 Meridian 73 83 67 79 / 5 42 34 2 Vicksburg 72 88 62 77 / 14 28 9 1 Hattiesburg 71 88 68 82 / 7 43 19 1 Natchez 71 87 64 77 / 12 34 9 1 Greenville 72 86 59 74 / 24 48 14 1 Greenwood 72 87 60 74 / 12 46 26 1 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$