457 FXUS64 KJAN 091951 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 251 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models continue to be consistent in track of Michael through the eastern Gulf into the Panhandle of Florida by Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile to the west, a chunk of energy will continue to shear out to the northeast as the overall trough crawls east. This ejecting wave will continue to support a surface frontal passage across the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. As Michael approaches the coast Wednesday, shortwave ridging over the forecast area between Michael and the approaching trough from the west will maintain warm air aloft/subsidence which will minimalize much of a precipitation threat early. However by afternoon, tighter pressure gradient in the east will support low level convergence and some banded convective structures. Further west, convergence along boundary appears much less impressive, but cannot rule out scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Other than a few showers continuing along the boundary as it moves east, the majority of the convection will wane quickly after sunset. The shallow cool airmass will completely overspread the area after midnight with a rather pleasant/cool day in store for Thursday. Despite a weak pressure gradient remaining across the area Thursday night, dryness of the airmass (dewpoints in the 40s) will support decoupling and prime radiational cooling conditions with clear skies. Would not be surprised to see minimums in the 40s across the north around sunrise Friday morning. Continued southwest mid level flow will help the shallow cool airmass shift east rapidly into Friday night while another storm system gathers strength to the west. Moisture, associated with Sergio, will move across northern Mexico and into TX Saturday as the northern stream drops a potent wave south into the northern High Plains out of Canada. While the majority of the moisture will be shunted to the north as these systems phase, the associated cold front will usher a cooler/deeper airmass into the region Sunday into Sunday night. Highs over some parts of the area may not rise out of the 60s Monday./26/ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: Stratus has been slow to lift today, so a broken stratus deck producing a mix of VFR to MVFR ceilings will continue for the next few hours at the TAF sites. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two may impact the TAF sites mainly before 00Z Wednesday. MVFR to IFR ceilings are then expected to build back in over the TAF sites as stratus lowers overnight. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 74 87 64 76 / 16 29 16 2 Meridian 74 83 67 79 / 16 42 34 2 Vicksburg 73 88 62 77 / 21 28 9 1 Hattiesburg 72 88 68 82 / 23 43 19 1 Natchez 72 87 64 77 / 22 34 9 1 Greenville 73 86 59 74 / 28 48 14 1 Greenwood 73 87 60 74 / 16 46 26 1 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$