344 FXUS64 KJAN 091803 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 103 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Updated for 18Z aviation discussion. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: Stratus has been slow to lift today, so a broken stratus deck producing a mix of VFR to MVFR ceilings will continue for the next few hours at the TAF sites. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two may impact the TAF sites mainly before 00Z Wednesday. MVFR to IFR ceilings are then expected to build back in over the TAF sites as stratus lowers overnight. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Low cloud cover has persisted into late this morning, which will help to limit heating to some extent today. As heating does occur this afternoon, limited instability will keep most precipitation showery. But some thunder could mix in especially in southwestern portions of the forecast area. Breezy winds out of the southeast will continue throughout the day, and a few gusts up to around 20 mph are expected once better mixing can occur. Also made some adjustments to POPs and weather out through tomorrow afternoon to better reflect precip timing and potential from latest short-term guidance. Subsidence on the northwestern side of Hurricane Michael will work to counteract shower potential through tomorrow, so best POPs will be confined to cold front passage. Rain and some thunder chances will accompany the front by late afternoon, but again think subsidence and divergence over our region ahead of the front will be limiting factors for storm potential. /NF/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight... The ArkLaMiss will remain in between three prominent weather features on Tuesday as a deep upper trough approaches from the west, Hurricane Michael enters the Northern Gulf from the south, and the upper ridge over the east coast weakens. A warm, tropical airmass will exist over the region as deep tropical moisture filters into the region from the Gulf. Pwats will reach 2"+ areawide by this evening. Chances of rain and storms will increase as the day progresses and the surface front associated with the deep trough, approaches the MS River Valley. The best chances of precip will be in the south and west through this period. Gusty winds will develop today as pressure gradients tighten ahead of the approaching front. Highs will be well above normal, creeping into the upper 80s once again. Lows on Tuesday night will also be well above average, falling only to near 70 degrees. JPM Wednesday through Monday night... Significant changes are on the way in the long term portion of the forecast with the first taste of early fall weather expected later this week. Before this happens, we will be watching Hurricane Michael track well east of the forecast area, making landfall along the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend coastline area Wednesday, potentially as a major hurricane before tracking northeast and weakening as it moves across southern GA. For the ArkLaMiss, sinking air on the periphery of the hurricane will hinder overall rain chances Wednesday into Wednesday night, but a weak cold front combined with daytime heating will help to boost moisture convergence and shower/thunderstorm chances over mainly northwest/northern portions of the ArkLaMiss. As "Michael" gets swept up in the westerlies and becomes extratropical late this week, northwest flow on the back side should help to advect in a more seasonable airmass, especially by Thursday night when low temperatures are likely to drop well into the 50s and even upper 40s for the first time this cool season. In the case of Jackson at least, this would be just shy of the "latest" sub-60 F reading set on 10/13/2002. Dry weather and more typical temperatures for early to mid October should follow through the weekend, and then we still have the potential for another perhaps more significant cool-down by the start of next week as a stronger cold front associated with increased shower/thunderstorm chances moves into the region. Am a bit more hesitant with the latest suite of guidance to completely buy into this scenario however as greater mid level ridging is now forecast over the Southeast CONUS, and that would keep heights higher and cool air more shallow. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 87 73 86 63 / 15 16 49 20 Meridian 86 74 84 68 / 23 17 45 23 Vicksburg 88 73 88 61 / 29 21 46 10 Hattiesburg 86 74 87 69 / 33 16 36 20 Natchez 85 71 86 63 / 44 24 35 11 Greenville 88 73 86 59 / 24 30 56 12 Greenwood 88 74 85 59 / 15 17 64 23 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ JPM3/NF/EC