238 
FXUS63 KIWX 101643
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1243 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Showers will accompany a cold front this afternoon into this
evening. Highs this afternoon will be in the 70s. Expect more 
fall like weather through next week, with highs in the 50s and 
lower 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Frost is expected early 
Saturday morning, when lows drop into the lower to middle 30s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

A strong cold front will move out of the Central Plains and race
across the Midwest later today and tonight. Ahead of the front,
very warm and moist air will continue to spread north ahead of the
front. In the interim, an impulse will move rapidly north across 
the Ohio River and spread showers and storms across the forecast 
area by midday. These storms are not expected to become severe, 
but may produce locally heavy rainfall. As the front approaches, 
there is a good chance for strong winds aloft being channeled down
to the surface. Although instability will be limited with MU 
Capes < 500 J/Kg, favorable support aloft including mid level 
winds up to 65 knots will likely produce linear storm organization
possibly including a squall line ahead of the front which will be
more favorable for strong and possibly damaging winds. Heavy 
rainfall may bring flooding to more vulnerable places including 
urbanized areas, low lying and poor drainage locations given 
extremely highs precipitable water values in an area of synoptic 
lift. Hurricane Michael will come on shore on the Florida Coast by 
this evening, but will track well southeast of the Ohio River and 
not impact the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Much colder weather is ahead for this Friday into next week.
Frost is likely Friday night as lows dip well down into the 30s. 
Chances for more heavier rain early next week appear to be waning
as the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio track farther southeast
than earlier expected. A reinforcing cold front behind this system
early next week will bring renewed chances for frost Monday night
and Tuesday night. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Deteriorating flight conditions anticipated this afternoon into
early this evening at KSBN/FWA as rain associated with a
shortwave/sfc trough swing through. Storm chances remain non-zero,
though lacking instability and cloud cover keep chances too low
for a mention. Post-frontal MVFR stratocumulus then post-frontal
overnight into Thursday morning. 

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday 
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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