820 
FXUS63 KIWX 100843
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
443 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 60s 
tonight. A cold front will bring rain and chances for 
thunderstorms. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible late
this afternoon and evening along with locally heavy rainfall. 
Highs Wednesday will be in the 70s. Expect more fall like weather 
through next week, with highs in the 50s and lower 60s and lows in
the 30s and 40s. Frost is expected on Friday night, when lows 
drop into the lower to middle 30s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

A strong cold front will move out of the Central Plains and race
across the Midwest later today and tonight. Ahead of the front,
very warm and moist air will continue to spread north ahead of the
front. In the interim, an impulse will move rapidly north across 
the Ohio River and spread showers and storms across the forecast 
area by midday. These storms are not expected to become severe, 
but may produce locally heavy rainfall. As the front approaches, 
there is a good chance for strong winds aloft being channeled down
to the surface. Although instability will be limited with MU 
Capes < 500 J/Kg, favorable support aloft including mid level 
winds up to 65 knots will likely produce linear storm organization
possibly including a squall line ahead of the front which will be
more favorable for strong and possibly damaging winds. Heavy 
rainfall may bring flooding to more vulnerable places including 
urbanized areas, low lying and poor drainage locations given 
extremely highs precipitable water values in an area of synoptic 
lift. Hurricane Michael will come on shore on the Florida Coast by 
this evening, but will track well southeast of the Ohio River and 
not impact the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Much colder weather is ahead for this Friday into next week.
Frost is likely Friday night as lows dip well down into the 30s. 
Chances for more heavier rain early next week appear to be waning
as the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio track farther southeast
than earlier expected. A reinforcing cold front behind this system
early next week will bring renewed chances for frost Monday night
and Tuesday night. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Concern for slightly faster timing of showers into northern
Indiana and have bumped up start and then give a 2 hour lag for
ceilings to trend down into IFR dominant. Also timed improving
conditions, but still fueling/alternate conditions, with frontal
passage late in the forecast period. 


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday 
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Murphy


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