547 
FXUS63 KIWX 091817
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
217 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

While an isolated shower or thunderstorms is possible this 
afternoon, most areas will remain dry. Unseasonably warmth
will persist with near record highs in the mid to upper 80s. Showers 
and storms will precede a cold front late Wednesday which will be 
accompanied by strong gusty winds. Much colder air 
is ahead fpr the latter part of the week with frost likely Friday 
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

A large upper level ridge will keep its hold on the region for one
more day. Weakening large scale subsidence should allow a few
showers and possibly some scattered storms this afternoon.
Otherwise, another dry and very warm day can be expected. Highs 
yesterday over the entire area were near 20 degrees above normal 
giving Fort Wayne the 5th warmest day of 88 degrees so late in the
season. There is a reasonable chance the record high at Ft Wayne 
of 86 today will be tied or broken. Tonight should be dry except 
for a small chance for near Lake Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Major changes are just ahead as a strong upper level system and 
associated cold front move across the area Wednesday night. Highs
should still be near 80 Wednesday before rain and storms move 
into the area. There is a good chance for strong winds aloft being
channeled down to the surface. Although instability will be 
limited, linear storm organization may produce a squall line ahead
of the front which will be more favorable for strong and possibly
damaging winds. In the interim, heavy rainfall may bring flooding
to more vulnerable places including urbanized areas, low lying 
and poor drainage locations given extremely highs precipitable
water values in an area of synoptic lift. Hurricane Michael will 
come on shore on the Florida Coast, but this system will track 
well southeast of the Ohio River and not impact the forecast area.
Much colder weather will follow for the weekend with temperatures
below normal. Frost is likely Fri5 day night as lows dip well down 
into the 30s. Another soaking rain is expected from late Saturday 
night into Monday as warm air surges north and overruns cooler air
near the surface. Lowered highs 2-3 degrees Sunday given clouds 
and a chilly rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

VFR through this period. Leading ern edge of height falls associated 
with plains cyclone lifting out into the upper midwest Wed aftn will 
remain west of the terminals. Thus given no discernible focusing 
mechanism near term and better low level moisture/theta-e holding 
west through IL have dropped prior VCSH mention.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper/T 
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...T


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