267 FXUS63 KIND 110639 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 239 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 158 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Fall weather has arrived in Central Indiana. Cool Canadian high pressure over the northern Plains states will build across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Saturday. This will result in dry and much cooler weather today...tonight and early Friday. An upper level weather disturbance will pass across Indiana on Friday afternoon and evening. This could result in a sprinkle or isolated rain shower. Dry and cool weather is expected to return for Saturday and Sunday morning. Another quick moving cold front will sweep across the area on Sunday night...bringing chances for rain. Look for below normal temperatures the next several days. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 158 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Surface analysis early this morning shows strong low pressure over the upper peninsula of Michigan along with a a cold front extending southward across western Ohio to Central Kentucky. Strong High pressure was found across the northern plains...spilling in the wake the of the cold front. Water vapor imagery shows good subsidence and dry air in place aloft upstream across Missouri..Iowa and Arkansas. However GOES16 shows an extensive stratus deck stretching across Illinois...Missouri and Iowa. The GFS and NAM both suggest the Low pressure system over the Great Lakes will continue it/s progress northeast today...dragging the cold front farther east also. Time heights suggest some saturated lower levels along with strong subsidence aloft. Given the extensive cloud cover upstream...will trend toward a cloudy sky this morning with some clearing this afternoon as the lower level flow becomes less cyclonic. Strong cold air advection will be in play today. This along with decent cloud cover for a good part of the day should limit heating. Will trend highs at or below the forecast builder blends...closer to the 3 hourly MAVMOS values. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Issued at 158 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Relatively quiet period is expected this period. The GFS and NAM suggest suggest the continuation of strong surface high pressure building across the area through Saturday and Saturday Night. Dry weather and cold air advection is expected tonight as the strong surface high builds across Indiana. Will trend toward a mostly clear sky tonight and early Friday. Next up comes the only caveat...a strong short wave...currently over the inter-mountain west poised to push through the Ohio valley on Friday afternoon and evening. The main concern with this quick moving system will be a complete lack of moisture. Westerly surface winds wind in place through Friday will only provide Pacific moisture...and that looks minimal. Forecast soundings show some dry air within the lower levels...but saturation aloft. PWATS appear rather minimal. At the moment...this system is not producing anything out west. Thus confidence for any rain on Friday and Friday night is minimal and will try to trend lower than any pops given by the forecast builder. After this wave passes...strong subsidence is expected to resume as weak ridging builds aloft. Forecast soundings again dry our for Saturday. Thus will again trend toward partly cloudy/mostly clear. Finally on Saturday night another quick moving short wave and an associated cold front looks to push toward Indiana from the central Plains. Models suggesting a increase in high cloud. Furthermore...the lower level flow at that time should become more southerly...leading to better chances for gulf moisture arriving and rainfall. Thus will keep any pops here with better confidence than the previous system. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Ensembles in good agreement with the overall weather pattern during this period. Progressive long wave troughing initially over the Plains will gradually shift east to the East Coast by the middle of next week. Will keep PoPs going in the forecast from Sunday through Monday night, given the passage of the long wave trough. Some ensembles suggesting a lingering precipitation threat into Tuesday. Can't discount these solutions at this time, as the axis of the long wave trough will still be close by. Will keep some PoPs going into Tuesday as well. It appear by next Wednesday, heights will begin to rise as the long wave trough departs, so will go dry at that time. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 11/06Z TAFs/... Issued at 1155 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR likely much of tonight as a cold front passes through the area. Conditions will improve to VFR Thursday morning. Winds will generally be west/northwesterly through the period, with sustained speeds as high as 10-15KT and gusts to 17-23KT at times. No obstructions to visibility expected through the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...Nield