688 FXUS63 KIND 110358 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1158 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... The Aviation section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A cold front will move through the area this evening, ending the rain and ushering in much colder air to central Indiana. The cool conditions will continue into next week, as a few systems move through and reinforce the cooler air. These systems will bring periodic chances for rain to the area as well. && .NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 This afternoon the main cold front was back across western Illinois. One surge of rain was moving across central Indiana at the moment. A pre-frontal line of convection was developing across central Illinois, with a narrow line along the front itself in western Illinois. Will go high PoPs for many areas at some point this afternoon with this initial band, with some likely PoPs west later this afternoon with the first initial line of convection. By 00Z this initial line of convection should be weakening as better forcing moves off to the northeast with the main upper trough. The convection along the front itself will also be diminishing. Most short term models agree with this. Will stick to chance PoPs most areas after 00Z, and diminish them quickly from west to east as the front moves through. All areas should be dry by midnight. There are some breaks in the clouds ahead of the pre-frontal line of convection, so can't rule out an isolated strong to perhaps severe storm. However, at the moment odds are against strong storms. Overnight will be dry with colder and drier air moving in. Went with more sky cover than the blend given what's upstream currently. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. Thursday into Friday morning will be dry and cool with high pressure building in. Clouds will gradually diminish Thursday, but will increase again Friday morning ahead of an upper trough. At the moment it appears some patchy frost is possible late Thursday night/early Friday morning, but am concerned that the winds might stay up just enough to prevent it. Will continue to monitor. An upper trough will move through Friday afternoon & Friday night. Models have come in pretty bullish with rain chances. The dynamics look pretty good, but rain will have to overcome dry air near the surface. Will go chance PoPs most areas, lowering the initialization's PoPs a bit. If clouds with this system exit fast enough, more frost is possible late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Again, will have to watch closely. Saturday will be dry with high pressure in the area. && .LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 High pressure should yield dry conditions and below normal temperatures on Saturday. For Sunday through Monday, there is general agreement from the long range models that a frontal system will make its way out of the plains to at least southern parts of central Indiana, but there are distinct differences in timing and placement of the system. Thus made no changes to the initialization. Temperatures will run below normal through the period. The coldest night currently looks like Monday night/early Tuesday morning, and this will need to be monitored for frost/freeze headlines as it approaches. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 11/06Z TAFs/... Issued at 1155 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR likely much of tonight as a cold front passes through the area. Conditions will improve to VFR Thursday morning. Winds will generally be west/northwesterly through the period, with sustained speeds as high as 10-15KT and gusts to 17-23KT at times. No obstructions to visibility expected through the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...Nield