004 FXUS63 KIND 101920 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 320 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A cold front will move through the area this evening, ending the rain and ushering in much colder air to central Indiana. The cool conditions will continue into next week, as a few systems move through and reinforce the cooler air. These systems will bring periodic chances for rain to the area as well. && .NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 This afternoon the main cold front was back across western Illinois. One surge of rain was moving across central Indiana at the moment. A pre-frontal line of convection was developing across central Illinois, with a narrow line along the front itself in western Illinois. Will go high PoPs for many areas at some point this afternoon with this initial band, with some likely PoPs west later this afternoon with the first initial line of convection. By 00Z this initial line of convection should be weakening as better forcing moves off to the northeast with the main upper trough. The convection along the front itself will also be diminishing. Most short term models agree with this. Will stick to chance PoPs most areas after 00Z, and diminish them quickly from west to east as the front moves through. All areas should be dry by midnight. There are some breaks in the clouds ahead of the pre-frontal line of convection, so can't rule out an isolated strong to perhaps severe storm. However, at the moment odds are against strong storms. Overnight will be dry with colder and drier air moving in. Went with more sky cover than the blend given what's upstream currently. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. Thursday into Friday morning will be dry and cool with high pressure building in. Clouds will gradually diminish Thursday, but will increase again Friday morning ahead of an upper trough. At the moment it appears some patchy frost is possible late Thursday night/early Friday morning, but am concerned that the winds might stay up just enough to prevent it. Will continue to monitor. An upper trough will move through Friday afternoon & Friday night. Models have come in pretty bullish with rain chances. The dynamics look pretty good, but rain will have to overcome dry air near the surface. Will go chance PoPs most areas, lowering the initialization's PoPs a bit. If clouds with this system exit fast enough, more frost is possible late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Again, will have to watch closely. Saturday will be dry with high pressure in the area. && .LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 High pressure should yield dry conditions and below normal temperatures on Saturday. For Sunday through Monday, there is general agreement from the long range models that a frontal system will make its way out of the plains to at least southern parts of central Indiana, but there are distinct differences in timing and placement of the system. Thus made no changes to the initialization. Temperatures will run below normal through the period. The coldest night currently looks like Monday night/early Tuesday morning, and this will need to be monitored for frost/freeze headlines as it approaches. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 101800z TAF issuance/... Issued at 108 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR to IFR conditions with rain showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm or two over the sites for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will be out of 150 to 190 ahead of the front at 8 to 13 kts with gusts of 18 to 24 kts (perhaps fewer gusts at KBMG and KHUF). After frontal passage later this evening, winds will shift to 270 to 300 at 8 to 12 kts with gusts similar to this afternoon. After the showers come to an end with the cold frontal passage, MVFR clouds are likely to rise to VFR and could scatter out late tonight/Thursday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...CP