751 FXUS63 KIND 100343 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1143 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... The Aviation section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A potent cold front will bring showers and some thunderstorms to central Indiana Wednesday into Wednesday night. The front will also bring true Autumn weather to the area, with below normal temperatures expected Thursday into next week. Another front could bring some rain Sunday & Monday. && .NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Warm and humid conditions continue across central Indiana this afternoon. A couple of isolated showers developed early in the afternoon, but had already moved out of the area by mid-afternoon. While cannot absolutely rule out a couple more showers, feel odds are too low to mention. Will keep them out of the forecast this afternoon. Much of the night will remain quiet with forcing from the approaching system remaining mainly west of the area. By late tonight, some lift will approach from the southwest. Will go with some small PoPs close to 12Z in the far southwest. With no change in airmass, will stick close to persistence for low temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper trough will move across the northern USA on Wednesday into Wednesday night, and this will push a cold front through the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is plentiful moisture around. Hurricane Michael may rob some of the deeper moisture and may help limit the heavy rain threat, but it will not eliminate the threat. There will be good lift with 30- 40kt 850mb jet ahead of the cold front. Thus rain looks like a good bet Wednesday. Some embedded thunder is possible into the afternoon as well. Will keep the model blend's likely to categorical PoPs all areas on Wednesday. After the first batch of forcing moves through, there may be a relative lull mid afternoon Wednesday. Forcing will then ramp up again as the cold front moves in later Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Will lower PoPs a bit mid-afternoon Wednesday, then bring them back up late afternoon into Wednesday evening (likely to categorical again). If enough instability can build up, there will be the possibility of some strong to severe storms later Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. Will continue to mention this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and social media. Rain will quickly shut off later Wednesday evening into the overnight. High pressure will then build in and bring dry conditions Thursday and Thursday night. On Friday, an upper trough and upper jet will try to bring some forcing to the area. However, moisture remains limited. Will keep the forecast dry. Temperatures will be much colder Wednesday night through Friday. && .LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 An upper trough will move through Friday night and usher in colder temperatures than we've seen yet this season with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Confidence is about par for a long term period, with some timing differences in each model run but overall similar patterns. This brings potential for some patchy frost to develop late during the overnight hours with light winds and clearing skies. Brief upper ridging will then move through for Saturday into Saturday night. A frontal system will then move closer on Saturday night and bring rain chances back into the area. The front will stall as a surface low moves along it and thus rain chances will remain in the forecast through Monday. High temperatures look to be in the 50s throughout the long term, with lows in the 40s Saturday night and Sunday night and then back into the 30s Monday night. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 10/06Z TAFs/... Issued at 1142 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 VFR through the first several hours of the period, before MVFR ceilings and visibilities move in with showers and embedded thunderstorms Wednesday morning. Ceilings will steadily deteriorate Wednesday morning and may get close to or drop into high end IFR briefly. Fluctuations are likely as is usually the case. Winds will generally be southeasterly early, becoming more southerly with time. Gusts tomorrow into the upper teens are likely at times. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...Nield