005 FXUS63 KIND 091912 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 312 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A potent cold front will bring showers and some thunderstorms to central Indiana Wednesday into Wednesday night. The front will also bring true Autumn weather to the area, with below normal temperatures expected Thursday into next week. Another front could bring some rain Sunday & Monday. && .NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Warm and humid conditions continue across central Indiana this afternoon. A couple of isolated showers developed early in the afternoon, but had already moved out of the area by mid-afternoon. While cannot absolutely rule out a couple more showers, feel odds are too low to mention. Will keep them out of the forecast this afternoon. Much of the night will remain quiet with forcing from the approaching system remaining mainly west of the area. By late tonight, some lift will approach from the southwest. Will go with some small PoPs close to 12Z in the far southwest. With no change in airmass, will stick close to persistence for low temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. An upper trough will move across the northern USA on Wednesday into Wednesday night, and this will push a cold front through the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is plentiful moisture around. Hurricane Michael may rob some of the deeper moisture and may help limit the heavy rain threat, but it will not eliminate the threat. There will be good lift with 30- 40kt 850mb jet ahead of the cold front. Thus rain looks like a good bet Wednesday. Some embedded thunder is possible into the afternoon as well. Will keep the model blend's likely to categorical PoPs all areas on Wednesday. After the first batch of forcing moves through, there may be a relative lull mid afternoon Wednesday. Forcing will then ramp up again as the cold front moves in later Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Will lower PoPs a bit mid-afternoon Wednesday, then bring them back up late afternoon into Wednesday evening (likely to categorical again). If enough instability can build up, there will be the possibility of some strong to severe storms later Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. Will continue to mention this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and social media. Rain will quickly shut off later Wednesday evening into the overnight. High pressure will then build in and bring dry conditions Thursday and Thursday night. On Friday, an upper trough and upper jet will try to bring some forcing to the area. However, moisture remains limited. Will keep the forecast dry. Temperatures will be much colder Wednesday night through Friday. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Ensembles in good agreement in suggesting long wave troughing will reside over the eastern parts of the country during this period. Ensembles continue to slow down the arrival of the precipitation threat with the next short wave trough, with the most aggressive members holding off the threat until late Saturday night. Based on this, will take out the PoPs for the daylight hours of Saturday, and concentrate the PoPs for mainly Saturday night through next Monday. Further adjustments to timing may still be needed in the future if the slower trends continue. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 091800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1236 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Good confidence in VFR flying conditions through 15z Wednesday. Then, conditions are likely to deteriorate to MVFR with widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms, especially after 18z. Winds will be SSE 10 knots or less. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...MK