191 FXUS63 KILX 111104 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 604 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Deep upper level low moving across the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes this morning and its associated front are bringing considerably cooler air into the region. This morning, temperatures are mainly in the 40s and 50s with brisk WNW winds making a chilly start for Central IL as wind chills come down to the 30s west of Interstate 55. These cooler temperatures are expected to maintain through the day, with high temperatures today not expected much higher than they are currently. Quiet weather today is anticipated, with the low level moisture enhanced by yesterdays rainfall. With that RH, there is a broad area of stratus from the northern Plains into the Midwest, expected to remain in place. Any small gaps that may develop will likely cu back over, given the RH in the column still. Those same clouds vary in clearing into the overnight hours, depending on the model. Overnight lows anticipated to drop into the 30s, and potentially bring in patchy to widespread frost. Even with the uncertainty, the first good cold snap of the year in place, will go with a frost advisory to highlight the issue. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Cooler temperatures dominate as the 500 mb pattern shifts to a more zonal flow to wrap up the week. Energy within the western trough deepens and cuts off just off the southern California coast. A series of waves coming out of the NW as well as the absorption of Sergio into the southwesterly stream into the region will drive the weather through the weekend. ECMWF/GFS still bringing the next wave through the Midwest for Friday, but the details almost change with each run. ECMWF is still more aggressive with QPF over a broader area. GFS is a little more conservative and focused on the southern half of the state. Although Michael has moved off to the east at this point, and not much of a player, the stream of moisture into the region from Sergio is also inconsistent with the interaction with the western cut off low. Pops delayed into Sunday afternoon/evening now with the next system. At this point, the solutions diverge a bit. Both ECMWF and GFS are moving a deep upper trough across the country, but the surface solutions are very different through Monday. Forecast dries out for Tuesday and Wednesday, eventually warming into the 60s for midweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Keeping the mainly MVFR cigs through midday with the expansive stratus shield over the northern plains and into the midwest. Though some small breaks are evident on sat imagery, not expected to break up until midday. Winds gusting already this morning and also expected to continue through the day, gusting up to 25 kts out of the NW. VFR anticipated later tonight. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>048. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...HJS