416 FXUS63 KILX 110854 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 354 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Deep upper level low moving across the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes this morning and its associated front are bringing considerably cooler air into the region. This morning, temperatures are mainly in the 40s and 50s with brisk WNW winds making a chilly start for Central IL as wind chills come down to the 30s west of Interstate 55. These cooler temperatures are expected to maintain through the day, with high temperatures today not expected much higher than they are currently. Quiet weather today is anticipated, with the low level moisture enhanced by yesterdays rainfall. With that RH, there is a broad area of stratus from the northern Plains into the Midwest, expected to remain in place. Any small gaps that may develop will likely cu back over, given the RH in the column still. Those same clouds vary in clearing into the overnight hours, depending on the model. Overnight lows anticipated to drop into the 30s, and potentially bring in patchy to widespread frost. Even with the uncertainty, the first good cold snap of the year in place, will go with a frost advisory to highlight the issue. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Cooler temperatures dominate as the 500 mb pattern shifts to a more zonal flow to wrap up the week. Energy within the western trough deepens and cuts off just off the southern California coast. A series of waves coming out of the NW as well as the absorption of Sergio into the southwesterly stream into the region will drive the weather through the weekend. ECMWF/GFS still bringing the next wave through the Midwest for Friday, but the details almost change with each run. ECMWF is still more aggressive with QPF over a broader area. GFS is a little more conservative and focused on the southern half of the state. Although Michael has moved off to the east at this point, and not much of a player, the stream of moisture into the region from Sergio is also inconsistent with the interaction with the western cut off low. Pops delayed into Sunday afternoon/evening now with the next system. At this point, the solutions diverge a bit. Both ECMWF and GFS are moving a deep upper trough across the country, but the surface solutions are very different through Monday. Forecast dries out for Tuesday and Wednesday, eventually warming into the 60s for midweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR cigs have covered all sites and based on recent models and satellite photos, this cloud cover will continue overnight and into the morning hours. Was scattering clouds out in the morning with previous issuance, but based on satellite photos of how extensive cloud cover is, will be keeping broken to overcast MVFR cigs through around noon at all sites. Then will have clear skies by 23-00z. Winds will be west to northwest through the whole time with gust of 20-25kts until evening. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>048. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Auten