828 FXUS63 KILX 110212 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 912 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Extensive cloud cover and breezy west winds will likely keep temps from dropping too far tonight. So will need to make some adjustments to forecasted overnight lows. Main adjustment is to raise them by 1-2 degrees in northwest half of the CWA. Remainder of the forecast looks fine. However, due to change in overnight lows, update will be sent out shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Mid afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front moving east toward Peoria and Springfield, with a narrow band of showers with moderate to heavy rain ahead of it nearing I-57. SPC day1 update continues a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over eastern IL rest of this afternoon for gusty winds. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies across IL this afternoon. Temps mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s over CWa, but were as warm as 78F at Flora with 80F at Salem and Centralia. Temps were falling into the low to mid 60s behind cold front in west central IL near MS river valley. CAPES were approaching 1000 j/kg over Effingham and Clay counties and feel this area may have best chance of marginal risk of strong to severe storms late this afternoon. Hi-res models push cold front eastward toward the IL/IN border early this evening, with chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms diminishing upon its passage. Partly to mostly cloudy skies prevail tonight with breezy west winds ushering in much colder air. Lows tonight in the upper 30s nw of the IL river and mid 40s in southeast IL. Canadian high pressure settles into the great plains on Thu with breezy WNW winds over central IL as skies become partly to mostly sunny by midday. Highs Thu in the 50s, ranging from lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Canadian high pressure settles into the eastern plains by dawn Thu and winds gradually diminish with fair skies setting up a chilly and potentially frosty overnight. Lows mostly in the mid 30s Thu night, with Galesburg near 32F and upper 30s near Lawrenceville. Widespread frost over nw CWA overnight, with areas of frost central CWA and patchy frost as far se as I-70 by dawn Fri. May eventually need a frost advisory overnight Thu night into early Fri morning over central/northern CWA. A weak disturbance over the southern Rockies ejects into MO by sunset Friday, and to spread some light rain showers into west central/sw IL late Fri morning and over rest of central and southeast IL during Fri afternoon, then diminish from the west during Fri evening. Increasing clouds Fri morning and light rain showers likely Fri afternoon to make for a cool day, with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s central IL and mid 50s se of I-70. Another chilly night Fri night with lows in the mid 30s and frost again likely developing over central IL during overnight Fri night as weak 1020 mb high pressure settles over lower ohio river valley by dawn Sat. A fair amount of sunshine Sat with SSW winds 5-10 mph on back side of high pressure. Cool fall-like day with highs in the low to mid 50s. Remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio that moves ne into central Baja of Mexico by dawn Fri morning and into west Texas by dawn Sat morning to track into southern AR by dawn Sunday morning. Models have trended further south with this tropical system and keeping higher chances of rain and heavier qpf south of CWA Sunday and Sunday night. Best chances of light rain showers into central IL later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night while lower pops north of Peoria. Latest GFS and Ecmwf models even keep much of CWA dry on Sunday. Highs Sunday range from near 50F by Galesburg to upper 50s to near 60F in southeast IL. Lows Sunday night in the mid 30s nw CWA and lower 40s in southeast IL. Chilly again on Monday with lingering chances of light rain showers in eastern/se IL Mon morning. Highs Mon only in the lower 50s, with some upper 40s northern CWA. Frost and Freeze headlines may be needed overnight Mon night into early Tue morning with lows in the low to mid 30s. Dry conditions forecast Monday night through Wed along with continued cool/below normal temperatures as strong upper level trof digs over the eastern US. Models have qpf over the Great Lakes region from late Tue thru Wed, keeping in n/ne of CWA. Though light pcpn chances could get closest to I-74 Tue night. Highs Tue/Wed in the 55-60F range while lows in the lower 40s Tue and Wed nights with a few upper 30s possible. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Though there is some clearing in eastern IL effect BMI/DEC/CMI this evening, this will be short lived as more clouds are moving in from the west and already effecting PIA and SPI. Cigs are VFR but MVFR cigs are expected overnight and have started all sites with MVFR cigs with TEMPO group of 1-3hrs for VFR cigs. These MVFR cigs will last overnight and then as drier air moves into the area, skies are expected to scatter out and remain that way through the day. Winds will be westerly overnight and then become more west to northwest tomorrow. Gusts are expected to continue tonight and then lessen tomorrow...but still be breezy. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Auten