381 FXUS63 KILX 101802 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 102 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Updated the forecast today to address widespread showers and chances of thunderstorms today, as strong cold front pushes eastward across IL during this afternoon. Also increased winds to a bit breezier levels today as south winds 10-20 mph have been gusting 20-28 mph this morning. Highs in the lower 70s western CWA and upper 70s in eastern IL, and will likely cool behind the cold front during the afternoon, especially from I-57 west. 16Z/11 am surface map shows deepening 1000 mb low pressure along the WI/MN border just southeast of the Twin Cities with a strong cold front extending southward through eastern IA into eastern MO and central AR. A prefrontal trof was further east near the IL river. Widespread showers were east of Galesburg and Winchester line while thunderstorms currently not observed over IL past hour, though pockets of moderate to heavier rain showers along and east of the IL river and tracking NNE. Mild temps were in the upper 60s and lower 70s over CWA with breezy south winds 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph. Highs will be reached early with lower 70s over western CWA and upper 70s in eastern IL. By sunset temps will cool into the upper 50s/lower 60s western CW with lower 70s in eastern IL. The latest CAM models sweep strong cold front eastward across IL during this afternoon, passing east of the IL/IN border shorlty after sunset. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to occur along and ahead of the cold front and diminish behind the front. SPC day1 outlook has marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon with 5% risk of damaging wind gusts over much of CWA. Category 4 hurricane Michael has strengthen to 150 mph at 11 am cdt, was 40 miles south of Panama City, FL and tracking NNE at 14 mph. Its very low atmospheric pressure was down to 27.26 inches of mercury. Hurricane Michael is forecast to track to near Panama City, FL shortly after 18Z/1 pm cdt. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 An upper level ridge just off the east coast expected to slowly erode as the trough and associated frontal systems slowly progress eastward. Some movement of the front and associated rain expected today as showers and thunderstorms move across Central IL. The developing surface low associated with the trough over the western half of the country is expected to lift out of the Missouri River Valley and into the Great Lakes today. The cold front will be at the western border of the state by midday. As the system lifts through, precip along and ahead of the boundary will receive an assist in vertical motion from the low, as well as additional deep bulk shear from 50-60kts briefly. Effective SRH is limited however, and instability should be relatively weak as potential for insolation is limited. Either way, in marginal risk for severe weather today as the system moves through the region, with the best chances between noon and 6pm or so until the front clears the state. Better instability will line up with the timing of the afternoon east of I-55. NAMNest/HRRR inconsistent with handling storms, but hint at some quick pulse-type storms scattered across a broader area. Models clear out the precip in time to drop temperatures overnight/Thursday morning into the 40s, a good 20 degrees cooler than the prev night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Cooler air moves into the region with a pattern shift aloft to a more zonal flow. Overnight low temperatures dropping into the 30s Thursday morning and Friday morning, with frost possible in the northern half of the state. A cutoff low in the deep western trough will retrograde slightly off the Baja peninsula. ECMWF/GFS still bringing the next wave through the Midwest for Friday, although now the ECMWF is far more aggressive with QPF over a broader area. GFS is a little more conservative and focused on the southern half of the state. Considering this time frame will also likely see impact from the remnants of Michael off of the Atlantic coast, and another storm brewing over the Baja peninsula...confidence in details is low. Pops return to the forecast for Saturday night in the GFS...delaying to Sunday in the ECMWF...and dominate the remainder of the weekend. This system moves out of the SW and into the Ohio River Valley, looking far different than 24 hrs ago. This time around, the low moving through the Ohio River valley puts Central Il on the northern edge of the system, picking up more in the way of stratiform with little thunder threat to wrap up the weekend. Either way, much cooler air in place will drop Sat and Sun morning lows into the upper 30s/lower 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A strong cold front was pushing east into west central IL early this afternoon, approaching the Quad Cities and St Louis metro. Cold front will push eastward through central IL during mid/late afternoon. Widespread showers ahead of the cold front could produce isolated thunderstorms until 20-21Z from BMI and DEC east to CMI. MVFR conditions (even IFR at CMI) to lift to VFR behind the cold front, then low clouds to scatter out/decrease from the west during the evening. Breezy south to SW winds of 10-15 kts with gusts of 18-25 kts ahead of the cold front to switch west behind the front and remain gusty through tonight and Wed, veering WNW Thu morning. Canadian high pressure to settle into teh Great Plains on Thu bringing fair skies and breezy conditions to central IL. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...07