257 FXUS63 KILX 100453 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1153 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Cloud cover has become scattered in the east and remain broken in the west. Precip remains well west of the area in MO and radar loop shows the showers and storms lifting northerly across MO and into IA. New model runs indicate this precip still not getting into the CWA until after midnight. Isolated showers will remain possible ahead of this main line as well. Current forecast still has a good handle on what is expected over the CWA the rest of the night, so no update planned at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Low pressure currently centered over Kansas will track northeastward along a frontal zone from northern TX through Iowa to northern Michigan tonight through Wednesday. As the low tracks into Wisconsin the trailing cold front will get a strong push eastward into central IL. Convection associated with warm advection ahead of the front will be the focus for thunderstorm activity tonight, which may be severe given up to 40 kts of sfc-6km bulk shear and up to several hundred J/kg CAPE lingering late in the night. As such, SPC continues a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly for a locally damaging wind threat, into areas from the Illinois River westward into tonight. Models have not significantly changed the timing of the front, with the front reaching the Mississippi shortly after sunrise, Illinois River just after noon, and Indiana around sunset. The character of convection has changed, however, as 12z convective-allowing models now show multiple clusters of convection ahead of the front in warm air advection overnight, followed by convection becoming more closely tied to the front by Wednesday afternoon as the front accelerates eastward into eastern Illinois. 1000 J/KG CAPE look possible, along with 40-50 kt bulk shear, implying a continued risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as the front progresses east across Illinois. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the front, then begin to cool after frontal passage. Lows tonight should be in the upper 60s, followed by low to mid 70s from the Illinois River westward, but reaching upper 70s to low 80s to the east. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Following Wednesdays cold front, the east coast ridge moves off to the east with a longwave trough beginning to establish over the central and eastern U.S. The resulting westerly flow pattern for central IL should result in much cooler weather for several days. Highs 50s are expected Thursday through Tuesday, with a few upper 40s even possible in the northwest. Lows are generally in the 40s with some potential mid to upper 30s mainly Thursday and Friday nights. A shortwave Friday could result in rain showers Friday afternoon or evening. The only additional precipitation in the next week looks to be as a disturbance from remnants of Pacific Hurricane Sergio that eject across the southern Rockies and move into the Ohio Valley region over the weekend. Precipitation amounts this far north still look to be modest with instability weak enough that no lightning would be expected. Since the large scale pattern between now and next weekend goes through a large transition, predictability remains low and these latest features remain subject to change. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 VFR conditions will continue into the overnight hours with mid and high clouds advecting into the area. However, by morning precip associated with the incoming cold front should begin to reach the TAF sites, effect PIA and SPI around 12z, BMI and DEC around 13z, and CMI around 14z. This will mainly be showers with isolated storms possible. Then by afternoon conditions will decrease, but remain MVFR cigs and vis. However with thunderstorm probabilities increasing for afternoon, have added a TEMPO group for couple of hours at all sites and will have IFR cigs and vis. Once storms pass, conditions improve back to MVFR for remainder of afternoon with isolated storms possible. Conditions will improved late afternoon/early evening from west to east at all TAF sites but some MVFR clouds may linger at CMI and BMI. Winds will become somewhat breezy out of the southwest to start by shift to more southerly for morning hours. Winds will increase again after the precip moves through and begin to shift to southwest and then westerly by late afternoon/early evening...with gusts of 23-25kts possible. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...37 LONG TERM...37 AVIATION...Auten