240 FXUS61 KILN 111426 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1026 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will rapidly push through the Ohio Valley early today, with lingering showers and a few embedded storms coming to an end. After the front pushes through, drier and cooler air will move in for the end of the work week. Unsettled weather will return for Friday night into Saturday as a upper level disturbance moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Based on 14Z surface obs, the cold front has just finished clearing through the ILN CWA, with winds switched to the northwest at all locations. The last strong push of cold advection behind the front is still affecting the southeastern sections of the forecast area, but from noon onward, temperatures should begin slight warming at all locations. At least in theory it will be more of a typical diurnal curve, though not in magnitude, as the continued cold advection will only allow for slight warming today. The clouds over the area are very shallow -- with very dry air above 900mb. This suggests that, as the previous forecast showed, the clouds will eventually scatter out as mixing occurs. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Surface ridge to nose into the area overnight. Skies will become mostly clear, except for the far north where some clouds may linger. Winds will lighten up leading to a good radiational cooling scenario. Have a mention of patchy frost in some of our western counties, where winds conditions will be most favorable. Lows will range from 35 in eastern Indiana to the lower 40s in the far northeast. Mid level flow will back as a s/w move into the mid MS Vly Friday. Expect to see an increase in clouds during the aftn but held off any mention of rain until very late in the day. Cool highs to range from the lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models signal below normal temperatures, with a couple periods when showers will be possible. A rather potent mid level short wave will produce a good chance of showers Friday night. Dry weather is forecast Saturday and Sunday under an area of high pressure. Chance of showers returns Monday when a cold front and wave of low pressure are forecast to move in from the west. A few snow flakes may mix in toward the end of the event Monday night, with frost possible after precip ends. High pressure and dry air are indicated for Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect below normal temperatures resulting from lower than average geopotential heights and low level cold advection. Highs are forecast to be in the 50s each day, except on Sunday when readings may reach 60. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Strong cold front pushing thru central Ohio taking lingering pcpn with it east of the TAF sites. Models are too optimistic and not doing a good job handling post frontal low clouds. Expect a period of MVFR ceilings to affect the TAFs early improving from west to east late morning into the aftn with conditions becoming VFR. As sfc high pressure noses into the area expect VFR conditions to continue tonight into Friday. West to northwest winds at 10 to 15 kts will gust up to 23 kts today. These winds will diminish to less than 10 kts tonight. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR NEAR TERM...Hatzos SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR