488 FXUS61 KILN 110851 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 451 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will rapidly push through the Ohio Valley early today, with lingering showers and a few embedded storms coming to an end. After the front pushes through, drier and cooler air will move in for the end of the work week. Unsettled weather will return for Friday night into Saturday as a upper level disturbance moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Shortwave to pivot through the Great Lakes into southern Canada today. Associated strong surface N-S cold front just passed through ILN and will push east of ILN/s Fa early this morning. Lingering showers over the far southeast will come to an end with the passage of this front. Satl imagery show extensive strato-cumulus clouds in the wake of this front pushing east across Indiana. Model solutions not handling these clouds well. Have hit these clouds harder and then allow for a break up during the aftn. West winds will gust to between 20 and 25 kts at times as colder air is advected into the area. Sharply colder temperatures today with readings 5 to 8 degrees below normal. Expect highs from the upper 50s northwest to the upper 60s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Surface ridge to nose into the area overnight. Skies will become mostly clear, except for the far north where some clouds may linger. Winds will lighten up leading to a good radiational cooling scenario. Have a mention of patchy frost in some of our western counties, where winds conditions will be most favorable. Lows will range from 35 in eastern Indiana to the lower 40s in the far northeast. Mid level flow will back as a s/w move into the mid MS Vly Friday. Expect to see an increase in clouds during the aftn but held off any mention of rain until very late in the day. Cool highs to range from the lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models signal below normal temperatures, with a couple periods when showers will be possible. A rather potent mid level short wave will produce a good chance of showers Friday night. Dry weather is forecast Saturday and Sunday under an area of high pressure. Chance of showers returns Monday when a cold front and wave of low pressure are forecast to move in from the west. A few snow flakes may mix in toward the end of the event Monday night, with frost possible after precip ends. High pressure and dry air are indicated for Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect below normal temperatures resulting from lower than average geopotential heights and low level cold advection. Highs are forecast to be in the 50s each day, except on Sunday when readings may reach 60. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface low pressure and its upper level energy will move northeast across the western Great Lakes into southeast Canada tonight. Warm, moist ascent well ahead of an attendant cold front was producing some light showers across the region this afternoon. Models push this activity to the north while showers and a few embedded thunderstorms develop within a prefrontal covergent axis moving in from the west. Some MVFR conditions are likely with the showers and embedded thunderstorms as they move east/northeast across our area. Predominate ceilings will lower between 1000 and 2000 feet behind frontal passage while the precipitation exits off to the east. Southerly winds, locally gusty, will shift to the west/northwest with frontal passage. On Thursday, subsidence in the wake of the weather system should gradually scour MVFR ceilings out between 15Z and 18Z. Northwest winds between 10 and 15 knots will gusts up to 20 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Axis of favorable moisture convergence and marginal instby leading to contd showers and embedded thunder over ILN/s far eastern counties. A stray shower could affect KCMH/KLCK prior to pushing off to the east this morning. Strong cold front to track through the TAF sites with winds shifting to the west. Expect a period of MVFR ceilings this morning, improving as drier air is advected in with west wind gusts up to 24 kts. Expect VFR conditions with only few to scattered cumulus clouds giving way to clear skies by late aftn. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR NEAR TERM...Franks/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR