039 FXUS61 KILN 110026 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 826 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move east across the region tonight, bringing showers and a few embedded thunderstorms with it. After the front pushes through, drier and cooler air will move in for the end of the work week. Unsettled weather will return for Friday night into Saturday as a upper level disturbance moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Showers with a little deeper convection over far southwest forecast area have spit out about 2 CG strikes and appear to be as garden-variety as they can come with only 20kts of wind noted on TCVG radar as they are passing through. A much more narrow line of convection in central Indiana will move east into western forecast area but again, little if any deep upward motion to separate a charge and similar velocities from the TIDS radar. SPC discussion did not hold much promise that the marginal threat would pan out this evening over the area given extensive cloud cover limiting any surface based instability. Otherwise, for the overnight period, as the cold front moves east, precipitation will generally taper off, except across the far eastern zones where a little bit of lift may occur post frontal to delay the exit of showers. Lows will range from the upper 40s west to the lower 60s east. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Any post frontal clouds are forecast to scatter from mid morning into early afternoon as drier air and subsidence continue in the wake of the cold front. Highs will be early east, and then they will slightly fall and steady out. For the remainder of the region, sunshine will provide for a little bit of a rise with highs generally 55 to 60 degrees. Northwest winds will be locally gusty. For Thursday night, skies will become mostly clear (surface ridging), except for the northeast zones where some clouds may occur. Winds will lighten and it will be colder. In fact, winds may lighten enough and temperatures drop enough for some patchy frost in some of our western counties. Will mention this in the HWO. Lows will range from 35 to 40 degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Period begins with benign weather as the region finds itself on the eastern edge of a surface high pressure system. Clouds will be on the increase Friday as a fast moving H5 s/w digs its way across the central plains. Temperatures will manage to work into the mid 50s for highs. The s/w swings through the Ohio Valley Friday night, bringing an area of pcpn with it. The pcpn will start as rain, but models are lowering thicknesses late Friday night. It looks like there could be a few wet snow flakes mixing in for the northern areas. Upped Pops to likely Friday night and added a chance of snow mixing in after midnight. Lows will drop to the upper 30s to lower 40s. High pressure builds in Saturday bringing dry and cool weather. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. Models diverge with their solution for the later part of the weekend. The GFS is quicker than the 00Z ECMWF and Canadian in spreading pcpn back into the area associated with energy in the srn stream. Went with the 00Z ECMWF/Canadian solution, which keeps skies clear Saturday night. Therefore there could some patchy frost for Sunday morning as lows drop into the upper 30s. As mentioned before the GFS spreads pcpn into the region late Saturday night and then across the south on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF/Canadian brings some pcpn in the northwest late in the day and then spreads it across the region Sunday night into Monday. High pressure builds in for the first half the next work week. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface low pressure and its upper level energy will move northeast across the western Great Lakes into southeast Canada tonight. Warm, moist ascent well ahead of an attendant cold front was producing some light showers across the region this afternoon. Models push this activity to the north while showers and a few embedded thunderstorms develop within a prefrontal covergent axis moving in from the west. Some MVFR conditions are likely with the showers and embedded thunderstorms as they move east/northeast across our area. Predominate ceilings will lower between 1000 and 2000 feet behind frontal passage while the precipitation exits off to the east. Southerly winds, locally gusty, will shift to the west/northwest with frontal passage. On Thursday, subsidence in the wake of the weather system should gradually scour MVFR ceilings out between 15Z and 18Z. Northwest winds between 10 and 15 knots will gusts up to 20 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR cigs/vsbys are expected until the cold pool stratus currently bisecting IL will push in 2-3kft cigs to the region. Showers affecting CVG/LUK may temporarily drop vsbys to 3sm or cigs to 3kft but then ramp back up to VFR shortly thereafter. Will be amending these back up relatively soon. Remaining line of showers will cross east and affect TAF sites for a brief period likely only covering one observation, and again without thunder. Stratus behind the pre-frontal trough and line of convection will then work in as the actual cold front crosses later this evening and overnight. Cigs will scatter out early tomorrow morning and clear skies in the afternoon are expected. With the cold air being pulled in, some gusts to 20kt may occur briefly in the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Franks/Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Franks