238 
FXUS61 KILN 101053
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
653 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers with a few thunderstorms will develop in the warm and 
increasingly humid airmass today. Chances for Showers and 
thunderstorms will increase tonight with the passage of a strong
cold front. After the front pushes through, a breezy, dry and 
cool period will commence for the end of the week. Cool weather 
will continue this weekend with showers possible Sunday into 
Monday with the approach of the next front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Negatively tilted shortwave ejects northeast from the northern 
Plains across the upper MS Vly today and the Great Lakes tonight.
Moisture will increase in the moist southerly flow ahead of this
feature. Favorable isentropic lift/WAA showers developing across
western KY and southern Indiana will pivot north offering
scattered morning showers with the best coverage over the 
southwest and west counties. Instability is initially very
negligible so have just kept this pcpn showers. 

Very marginal instability develops this aftn so have included a
mention of chance category of thunder. On the warm side of the 
system expect highs to range from the upper 70s west to the 
lower 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Negatively tilted s/w to pivot from the upper MS Vly into the
Great Lakes tonight. Associated strong cold front to push east 
through the area between 03Z and 09Z. Favorable deep layer shear
will exist but instby will be marginal and weakening. Better
chance for strong to severe storms to our west with a general 
weakening tend as they push east into ILN/s FA this evening.  

Although the deep-layer shear is favorable for organized storms,
midlevel lapse rates are not impressive and with upper level 
support weakening and with diminishing instby do not expect
widespread chance for severe weather. Therefore, have limited 
any mention of strong to severe storms to isold in the west. The
main threat will be strong to damaging winds. Pcpn chances will
begin to end from the west late tonight as the front pushes off
to the east. Tonight lows will range from the lower 50s west to
the lower/middle 60s east. 

In the wake of this front all pcpn will end early Thursday with
west-northwest winds at 15 to 20 mph ushering a cooler airmass 
into the region. Temperatures will be a little below normal with
highs on Thursday ranging from the upper 50s northwest to the
upper 60s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A wavy upper air pattern will result in rounds of unsettled weather, 
while lowering geopotential heights point to cooler temperatures. 

For Thursday night and Friday, much cooler and drier air will be 
circulating around high pressure centered to the west. Along with 
below normal temperatures, no precip is expected. A potent mid level 
short wave embedded in a westerly flow will bring a chance of 
showers Friday night. Frost may develop early Saturday morning 
behind the departing short wave, with dry weather persisting through 
the rest of the day. 

A cold front arriving from the west will bring a chance of showers 
Saturday night through Monday. There is some uncertainty with 
respect to timing and we may see a later time of arrival for this 
system. High pressure and dry weather may allow frost formation 
again on Tuesday morning. 

Temperatures flipping below normal will feature highs in the 50s and 
60s, with lows falling to the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds will be on the increase across the region through the 
morning in the increasingly moist, southerly flow pattern. 
Showers over southern Indiana will continue to develop north and
east in a region of favorable isentropic lift, affecting the 
TAFs late this morning into the afternoon. Have covered this 
chance with a mention of VCSH.
 
A strong cold front will push east across the TAF sites tonight.
Ahead of this, expect to see an increasing chance of showers 
with embedded thunderstorms. Have prevailing showers with a 
mention of VCTS at all TAF sites but the best chance of thunder 
will be over the west with weakening marginal instby. After the 
front pushes through expect to see the development of MVFR 
ceilings late tonight. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible early Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR