365 FXUS61 KILN 091756 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 143 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Summer like, very warm and humid weather will continue into Wednesday. A strong cold front will push through Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler temperatures will follow the front through the end of the week into the weekend. The next chance of rain looks to develop late Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... There were not too many notable changes made to the ongoing fcst for the AM update. Temperature traces/trends seem right on track for highs to again top out in the mid/upper 80s area wide. This will likely be the last day in the extended stretch of summerlike temperatures in the Ohio Valley. A few minor/subtle changes were made to sky grids in accordance with morning satellite imagery. Other than that, the slight chance PoPs were removed in the NW for the afternoon (therefore leaving the entire local area dry through the near term period). The pressure gradient will begin to tighten ever so slightly this afternoon, which may lead to gusts to 10-15 MPH during the afternoon hours. Better surface flow will continue to develop/evolve through the next 24 hours or so. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Expansive ridge centered off the east coast will continue to influence our weather tonight into the first part of Wednesday. Expect another very warm night tonight. Any cumulus clouds will quickly dissipate with the loss daytime heating this evening, resulting in mostly clear skies early. Mid and high level clouds will increase from the south late. Expect lows in the mid and upper 60s, which is close to normal highs for this date. Strong mid level shortwave to eject northeast thru the upper MS Vly and into the Great Lakes. Flow will back allowing moisture to increase ahead of a sfc cold front. Front is expected to cross ILN/s FA late Wednesday night. Forcing is limited in the warm sector and only marginal instability develops into the west during the aftn. Model solutions continue to show support for slower arrival of pcpn. Given the lack of instby or favorable dynamics have chance pops in the aftn and hold off likely until late in the day in the west. On the warm side of the system temperatures will continue above normal with highs Wednesday from the upper 70s far west to the lower 80s east. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong cold front will be pushing across the area Wednesday night, requiring categorical pops for showers and a few thunderstorms. Though winds aloft will be potent, there will be a lack of instability at night, reducing the chances for severe weather. Copious moisture advection ahead of the front will allow heavy downpours until the front moves east Thursday morning. A large area of high pressure following the cold front will provide dry weather Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Low pressure and another cold front will bring numerous showers Sunday and Monday. A transition to below normal temperatures will be observed during this period. Thursday, the warmest day of the long term, will have highs in the 60s to around 70. For the rest of the period from Friday through Monday, highs will be in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Lows will generally be in the 40s most nights, except Friday night when readings are forecast to fall to the upper 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FEW to SCT VFR Cu have developed over the terminals for this afternoon, but should see a decreasing trend towards sunset with just some SCT/BKN mid/high level clouds working in from the southwest during the latter part of the overnight period. Southerly winds of around 10-12kts will decrease slightly towards sunset and beyond, but not go completely calm, even for area river valleys during the nighttime. Southeasterly winds of around 5 kts will persist through the overnight before increasing again to between 12-15kts by the afternoon Wednesday. Even with winds not anticipated to go completely calm, some MVFR or IFR VSBYs may still be possible at KLUK between 08-12z. However, VSBY restrictions are not expected outside of area river valleys or at the other local terminals. Deep-layer moisture will be advecting north-northeastward by 12z Wednesday, accompanied by a fairly rapid increase in VFR cloud cover from the southwest Wednesday morning. Increasing lift and dynamic support should allow for areas of showers with embedded thunder to increase in coverage by the afternoon, potentially impacting southwestern sites of KCVG and KLUK before the end of the 24-hr period. Held off for now on adding TEMPOs for all other sites as activity will likely arrive after 18z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Anomalous upper level ridge centered over the eastern conus will offer summer like temperatures. Below is a table of records for today through Wednesday 10/10. CVG Record highs and year Highest Minimum Temperature and year 10/9 90 in 1939 10/9 70 in 1982 10/10 89 in 1913 10/10 69 in 1883 DAY Record highs and year Highest Minimum Temperature and year 10/9 86 in 1939 10/9 69 in 1939 10/10 86 in 2010 10/10 66 in 1904 CMH Record highs and year Highest Minimum Temperature and year 10/9 88 in 1939 10/9 69 in 1879 10/10 87 in 2010 10/10 66 in 1879 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...KC CLIMATE...