828 FXUS62 KILM 110713 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 313 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Michael will continue to weaken as it moves across the Carolinas today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms with periods of heavy rain, gusty winds and the threat of an isolated tornado will last through early evening. A cold front will push across the area Friday followed by high pressure and Fall like weather this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...What is now tropical storm Michael is progressing along much as expected. The main band of showers is now moving into southern areas of the CWA and this will continue to move to northeast in time this morning and afternoon. I basically followed the HRRR and NAM progressions which show mostly a morning event. The southern half of the storm is being somewhat eroded by drier air moving in. The speed of the storm also plays a role in the quick hitting storm. SPC has maintained a slight risk for all but the extreme western parts of the area but at least so far tornado warnings have been rather sparse. Overall I made only minimal changes to temperatures as they will be modulated by showers and some possible sunshine later this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Progressive mid-level pattern sets up in the wake of Michael as broad troughing moves over the eastern CONUS for the end of the week. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the northwest through the period, dropping temperatures close to climo. Precipitable water drops to around half an inch on Fri and stays well under an inch Sat allowing the region the chance to dry out and keeping skies mostly clear. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...A progressive shortwave will move across New England early in the long term period with near zonal flow across the Southeast United States. In response, surface high pressure will move quickly off the coast during Sunday. Return flow will begin Monday ahead of a strong cold front. The front could move through Monday night or early Tuesday morning with a chance of showers/tstms. Drier/cooler weather is on tap by next Tuesday/Wednesday. After near normal temperatures this weekend temperatures will become above normal once again Sunday through Monday in the pre-frontal environment. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06Z...What is now tropical storm Michael is behaving as expected with a nice lull in showers currently across the area. Some lower IFR ceilings have even developed. Conditions will go down quickly from southwest to northeast in just a few hours however as the storm moves rapidly northeast just barley clipping our northwest counties. Long story short, I used tempo groups with IFR conditions and stronger gusts coinciding with the more organized bands and MVFR conditions a few hours either side of the more concentrated bands. Finally VFR conditions should develop late afternoon at all sites as drier air wrapping in along the southern side of the storm and the speed will lead to a quick clearing. Most sites have low level wind shear as well. Extended Outlook...VFR expected by Thursday evening with predominately VFR conditions and cooler weather expected through the extended. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...All waters remain in a tropical storm warning which speaks for itself. Probably a good chance of transitioning to a small craft advisory mainly for residual higher seas late in the period as what will then be gradient winds will be just below criteria. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Northerly flow through the period will veer from northwest Fri morning to north on Sat and northeast Sat night. Offshore flow at the start of the period will be 15 to 20 kt, aided by pinched gradient due to departing Michael. Gradient relaxes during Fri with speeds dropping to around 10 kt. Northerly flow continues around 10 kt into Sat night before northeast surge arrives, pushing speeds into the high end of the 10 to 15 kt range. Offshore flow drops seas from 3 to 5 ft at the start of the period to 2 to 3 ft later Fri night. Seas remain 2 to 3 ft into Sat evening before slowly increasing to around 3 ft as the period ends due to increasing northeast flow. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...High pressure will quickly move off the Mid-Atlantic coast allowing the flow to veer to a southeasterly direction during Sunday. During Monday southerly flow will increase ahead of a strong cold front that could move through Monday night. Seas will be 3 ft or less but will increase in the wake of the strong front late Monday, especially away from the coast in offshore flow. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 1000 AM Wednesday...We have issued a Coastal Flood Warning for Brunswick County Beaches and immediate coast due to 2 to possibly 3 ft above thresholds which takes it to Moderate flooding and the requirement for CFWarning. Elsewhere, expect minor coastal flooding thresholds along the immediate coast, including the area beaches and the Lower Cape Fear River, will be met mainly during the morning High Tide cycles except ALSO during the Thu evening high tides, when the last of Michael's circulation progresses northeast of the FA. Minor coastal flooding thresholds for Springmaid Pier in SC is 7.5 ft MLLW and for Johnny Mercer Pier in NC at 6.0 ft MLLW and the Lower Cape Fear River Gage vcnty of Wilmington at 5.5 ft MLLW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ017-023-024-032- 033-039-054>056-058-059. Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056- 058-059. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for SCZ054-056. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for SCZ054-056. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for SCZ054-056. NC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ110. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for NCZ106-108- 110. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for NCZ106-108-110. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ106>109. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...SHK