623 FXUS62 KILM 110529 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 129 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Intermittent showers with isolated or thunderstorms will continue across the Carolinas tonight. Hurricane Michael, over land now, will continue to weaken as it begins to accelerate northeast, moving across the Carolinas during Thursday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms with periods of heavy rain, gusty winds and the threat of tornadoes, will occur from the Pre-dawn Thursday hours through early Thursday Evening. A cold front will push across the area Friday followed by high pressure and Fall like weather this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1000 PM Wednesday...Some tweaks to the pops lower for late this evening before ramping them back up as the actual circulation associated with Michael begins to overspread the FA from sw to ne late in the pre-dawn hours. The ILM CWA will continue to remain in the favorable location for embedded quick tornadic spin-ups beginning prior to sunrise Thu and continuing until Michael's center pulls away to the NE by late Thu aftn or early Evening. No major changes need for temps. Previous..................................................... As of 200 PM Wednesday...Have issued a coastal flood warning for Brunswick coast as strong on shore winds are expected to cause moderate flooding during high tide on Thurs mid to late morning. The latest official NHC forecast brings the center of Michael across the inland CWA in the 16-20Z Thursday. With its approach, surf conditions will continue to deteriorate, with breaking waves likely to reach as high as 8 feet on Thursday. Therefore a High Surf Advisory has been raised and will remain in effect into Thursday night. For the remainder of today and tonight, guidance and radar trends indicate that shower activity will remain scattered in nature. However within those showers, the potential will exist for brief, very heavy rain, and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 2 AM Friday. As Michael accelerates to the northeast and approaches the eastern Carolinas, rainfall will expand in areal coverage from SW to NE beginning Thursday morning. The highest rainfall amounts are expected to occur west of the I-95 corridor, where 3-4" amounts will be common, but locally as high as 5-6". These amounts will trend lower further east, with an average of 0.75-1.0" along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Fall-like weather will arrive as Michael departs heading into Friday. Much drier air will wrap around the back end of Michael in deep NW winds. Complete change in air mass as pcp water values will drop down to less than a half inch by daybreak Fri. Expect clearing skies and diminishing off shore winds through Fri. Temps will drop down into the 60s before daybreak Fri with a rebound of temps up into the mid to upper 70s on Fri under mainly sunny skies. By Fri, a much drier air mass will be in place with dewpoint temps down into the 50s by Fri aftn and below 50s by Fri night. With light winds and clear skies, more ideal radiational cooling will allow temps to drop down into the 50s Sat night, possibly dipping below 50 in some traditionally cooler spots across the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A progressive shortwave will move across New England early in the long term period with near zonal flow across the Southeast United States. In response, surface high pressure will move across the Mid-Atlantic region during Saturday and quickly off the coast during Sunday. Return flow will begin Monday ahead of a strong cold front. The front could move through Monday night or early Tuesday morning with a chance of showers/tstms. Drier/cooler weather is on tap by next Tuesday/Wednesday. After near normal temperatures this weekend temperatures will become above normal once again Sunday through Monday in the pre-frontal environment. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06Z...What is now tropical storm Michael is behaving as expected with a nice lull in showers currently across the area. Some lower IFR ceilings have even developed. Conditions will go down quickly from southwest to northeast in just a few hours however as the storm moves rapidly northeast just barley clipping our northwest counties. Long story short, I used tempo groups with IFR conditions and stronger gusts coinciding with the more organized bands and MVFR conditions a few hours either side of the more concentrated bands. Finally VFR conditions should develop late afternoon at all sites as drier air wrapping in along the southern side of the storm and the speed will lead to a quick clearing. Most sites have low level wind shear as well. Extended Outlook...VFR expected by Thursday evening with predominately VFR conditions and cooler weather expected through the extended. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1045 PM Wednesday...Eventhough T.C. Michael has decreased to a Cat 1 Hurricane, and likely further to a Tropical Storm once it reaches this latitude, the circulation around it's center will likely increase as it begin's it's transition to an extra-tropical low. Thus, we do expect tropical storm strength sustained winds and/or wind gusts over the local waters, especially with the FA being on the east side of Michael's center where the hier winds usually reside. Will continue the brief rise of sig. seas to 10+ ft Thu b4 dropping back to single digits Fri. Previous.................................................... As of 130 PM Wednesday...Tropical cyclone Michael will make its closest approach to area waters between about noon and 4 PM Thursday. Conditions should remain relatively stable, with winds 20-25 knots and seas 7-9 feet through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, then further deteriorate from south to north after midnight. All waters remain in a tropical storm warning, and sustained winds as high as 40 knots are expected to overspread the waters from south to north during Thursday. Gusts as high as 50 knots will also be possible, along with seas of 10-12 feet. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Tropical storm force winds will diminish as they veer around from W to NW overnight Thurs into Fri morning and N by Fri aftn as they diminish to 10 to 15 kts. As winds diminish in off shore flow, seas will drop below SCA thresholds by Fri morning. Winds continue veering Fri night, to N-NE late Fri into Fri night as high pressure to the north shifts east. Winds will be down to 10 kts or less Fri night with seas down to 3 ft or less. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure will ridge across the waters from the north Saturday resulting in northerly flow. The area of high pressure will quickly move off the Mid-Atlantic coast allowing the flow to veer to a southeasterly direction during Sunday. During Monday southerly flow will increase ahead of a strong cold front that could move through Monday night. Seas will be 3 ft or less but will increase in the wake of the strong front late Monday, especially away from the coast in offshore flow. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 1000 AM Wednesday...We have issued a Coastal Flood Warning for Brunswick County Beaches and immediate coast due to 2 to possibly 3 ft above thresholds which takes it to Moderate flooding and the requirement for CFWarning. Elsewhere, expect minor coastal flooding thresholds along the immediate coast, including the area beaches and the Lower Cape Fear River, will be met mainly during the morning High Tide cycles except ALSO during the Thu evening high tides, when the last of Michael's circulation progresses northeast of the FA. Minor coastal flooding thresholds for Springmaid Pier in SC is 7.5 ft MLLW and for Johnny Mercer Pier in NC at 6.0 ft MLLW and the Lower Cape Fear River Gage vcnty of Wilmington at 5.5 ft MLLW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ017-023-024-032- 033-039-054>056-058-059. Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056- 058-059. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for SCZ054-056. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for SCZ054-056. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for SCZ054-056. NC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ110. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for NCZ106-108- 110. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for NCZ106-108-110. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ106>109. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...DCH/CRM SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...SHK MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...