590 FXUS62 KILM 101410 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1010 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances will be on the increase today as Hurricane Michael makes landfall along the Florida coast. Michael will quickly move northeast Thursday into Friday, spreading periods of heavy rain and gusty winds across the area. A cooler and drier airmass will follow for the weekend. A cold front may bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday or Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Wednesday...Morning surface analysis shows a weak inverted trough extending across the forecast area just east of the I-95 corridor. The trough will continue to push inland through the afternoon. The area of rain and embedded heavy showers crossing the Pee Dee region this morning will push inland as well. Will continue with PoPs generally in the 60-90 percent range. Although latest hi-res guidance suggests afternoon convection will remain scattered in nature as higher chances transition from northeast SC to southeast NC, most areas are expected to receive measurable precip before the day is over. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night. Radar estimates indicate 1.5" to as much as 2.5" of rain has fallen in some locations across portions of Darlington, Florence and Marion counties with this mornings rain, so these areas will be primed for potential flooding with any additional heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Michael will be moving into and across the area Thu into Thu night spreading heavy rain and gutsy winds across the region. Afternoon/early evening timing coupled with increasing shear does suggest an increased risk for tornadoes and SPC has maintained the slight risk for the entire forecast area (with a mention of possible upgrade to enhanced with subsequent updates). As one would expect Michael will be accompanied by a slug of deep tropical moisture. Even before the storm arrives deep, strong southeast will advect an abundance of moisture into the area. Precipitable water in forecast soundings exceed 2.5 inches for an extended period of time Thu. The good news is Michael, as well as individual storms, will be quick moving which should limit rainfall across the region. Still expect 2 to 4 inches across the region which may lead to some flooding issues, especially in areas where water levels remain elevated. Dry air wraps in behind Michael Thu night into Fri with the region rapidly drying out. Forecast soundings drop pwat under 1 inch early Fri and to around half an inch by midday Fri. Drier air brings cooler temperatures with it, with temperatures above climo Thu and Thu night dropping to near climo for Fri and Fri night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Cooler air pushes in over the weekend possibly yielding coolest air since before Summer. Warm and moist advection on Monday as the first high moves offshore but an even stronger cold front due Tuesday. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 12Z... Showers for the areas in SC will continue this morning which may bring terminals from VFR to lower categories for a few minutes. MVFR ceilings at the southernmost terminals will rise to VFR late this morning. Showers will develop offshore and move inland throughout the day with a strong SE wind and a long fetch of tropical moisture. There will be a brief break where coverage decreases before the arrival of the outer bands of Hurricane Michael. Despite showers throughout the day, expect VFR conditions on Wed. Overnight, winds will slowly increase and ceilings will drop to MVFR. As the storm approaches, rain chances will increase, especially around sunrise on Thu. Extended Outlook...Tropical cyclone Michael is expected to impact the area Wednesday night through Friday, bringing periods of heavy rain with IFR ceilings, as well as sustained winds of 30-40 kt with gusts potentially in the 40-50 knot range. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Wednesday...All waters are in a tropical storm warning. Latest buoy obs show sustained 20 knots across the waters with gusts to 25 knots. Seas running around 7-8 feet, and these will continue through tonight, before building higher Thursday with the approach of the tropical system from the Gulf of Mexico. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Treacherous conditions to start the period with the remains of Michael quickly passing west of the waters Thu into Thu night. Southerly winds will peak around 40 kt Thu before decreasing Thu night as the storm exits to the north. Winds will remain out of the south-southwest into Fri morning before flow starts to become offshore. Although offshore winds will be weakening, the direction will help knock back seas and by midday or so seas for much of the area will be under 6 ft. Winds continue slowly veering, first to northwest and then north-northeast late Fri into Fri night as high pressure to the north shifts east. Gradient will support speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range through the end of the period. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure moves across the area over the weekend yielding mostly northeasterly to easterly winds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 1000 AM Wednesday...Minor coastal flooding thresholds along the immediate coast, including the area beaches, will be met mainly during the morning High Tide cycles except including the evening high tide during Thu when Michael progresses across the FA. Minor coastal flooding thresholds for SC using Springmaid Pier is 7.5 ft MLLW and for NC using Johnny Mercer Pier at 6.0 ft MLLW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Flash Flood Watch through late Thursday night for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056- 058-059. High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for SCZ054-056. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for SCZ054-056. NC...Flash Flood Watch through late Thursday night for NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for NCZ106-108- 110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ106>110. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...21 MARINE...III/MBB/SHK