587 FXUS62 KILM 100901 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 501 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances will be on the increase today as Hurricane Michael makes landfall along the Florida coast. Michael will quickly move northeast Thursday into Friday, spreading periods of heavy rain and gusty winds across the area. A cooler and drier airmass will follow for the weekend. A cold front may bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday or Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 5 AM Wednesday...All Tropical Storm Watches have been converted to Tropical Storm Warnings. As of 3 AM Wednesday...Good surface convergence between the broad circulations of Bermuda High Pressure and Hurricane Michael is producing an increasing area of showers and to an extent stratiform rain. There doesn't seem to be any lightning as conditions are just too stable and the moisture is shallow. In fact there is a stark difference in column moisture between the soundings last evening of Morehead City and Charleston hence the better coverage south. High resolution guidance does show the area filling in somewhat and persisting through most of the morning hours. By this afternoon and especially overnight tonight there should be a lull as some drier air as seen in water vapor imagery moves across the area. Same old story for temperatures as going above guidance is the way to go and expect highs today to be nearing the middle 80s although there will certainly be more cloud cover to contend with and very steamy lows tonight as a pure tropical airmass nears with readings well in to the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Michael will be moving into and across the area Thu into Thu night spreading heavy rain and gutsy winds across the region. Afternoon/early evening timing coupled with increasing shear does suggest an increased risk for tornadoes and SPC has maintained the slight risk for the entire forecast area (with a mention of possible upgrade to enhanced with subsequent updates). As one would expect Michael will be accompanied by a slug of deep tropical moisture. Even before the storm arrives deep, strong southeast will advect an abundance of moisture into the area. Precipitable water in forecast soundings exceed 2.5 inches for an extended period of time Thu. The good news is Michael, as well as individual storms, will be quick moving which should limit rainfall across the region. Still expect 2 to 4 inches across the region which may lead to some flooding issues, especially in areas where water levels remain elevated. Dry air wraps in behind Michael Thu night into Fri with the region rapidly drying out. Forecast soundings drop pwat under 1 inch early Fri and to around half an inch by midday Fri. Drier air brings cooler temperatures with it, with temperatures above climo Thu and Thu night dropping to near climo for Fri and Fri night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Cooler air pushes in over the weekend possibly yielding coolest air since before Summer. Warm and moist advection on Monday as the first high moves offshore but an even stronger cold front due Tuesday. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 06Z...A few more aviation concerns this cycle as expected. The main feature is the area of convergence with a decent coverage of showers now taking shape just south of the area. Guidance is in good agreement in maintaining this feature and moving it northward over the next twelve hours or so. It appears however that VFR conditions are being maintained and will probably remain so. There could be a fleeting MVFR or even IFR observation but it appears the moisture is just to shallow to produce any widespread heavy rainfall. I did use prevailing SHRA through most of the morning and early afternoon hours along coastal terminals with a slightly shorter timeframe inland . Extended Outlook...Tropical cyclone Michael is expected to impact the area Wednesday night through Friday morning, bringing periods of heavy rain with IFR ceilings, as well as sustained winds of 30-40 kt with gusts potentially near the 50 knot range, especially at the coastal terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...All waters are in a tropical storm watch and most likely a warning very soon. Winds are currently out of the southeast in a range of 20-25 knots and will trend slowly upward through the period. A similar pattern for significant seas increasing slowly through the period. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Treacherous conditions to start the period with the remains of Michael quickly passing west of the waters Thu into Thu night. Southerly winds will peak around 40 kt Thu before decreasing Thu night as the storm exits to the north. Winds will remain out of the south-southwest into Fri morning before flow starts to become offshore. Although offshore winds will be weakening, the direction will help knock back seas and by midday or so seas for much of the area will be under 6 ft. Winds continue slowly veering, first to northwest and then north-northeast late Fri into Fri night as high pressure to the north shifts east. Gradient will support speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range through the end of the period. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure moves across the area over the weekend yielding mostly northeasterly to easterly winds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 1000 PM Tuesday...Latest water levels of the Lower Cape Fear River(LCFR) at downtown Wilmington remain above minor coastal flood thresholds of 5.5 ft MLLW. High tide occurs at 1044 PM and will likely remain at or just shy of 6.0 ft MLLW. Minor coastal flooding of the LCFR will occur within a 3 hr window centered at each successive high tide for the next several days. Minor coastal flooding thresholds along the immediate coast, including the area beaches, will be met mainly during the morning High Tide cycles except including the evening high tide during Thu when Michael progresses across the FA. Minor coastal flooding thresholds for SC using Springmaid Pier is 7.5 ft MLLW and for NC using Johnny Mercer Pier at 6.0 ft MLLW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056- 058-059. Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058- 059. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for SCZ054-056. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for SCZ054-056. NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for NCZ106-108- 110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ106>110. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...MAS/SHK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...III/MBB/SHK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...