015 FXUS62 KILM 100528 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 128 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and increasingly wet conditions will continue for the next couple of days mainly due to the approach of Michael and it's eventual passage overhead as a Tropical Storm late Thu. A strong cold front will sweep across the area by late Fri followed by high pressure accompanied with Fall like temperatures this upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1000 pm...Latest Conference call will keep all current Watches, Advisories and headlines across the ILM CWA as is. Have only applied some minor tweaks here and there for Temps and POPs tonight into Wed. The Superblend will continue to be used as a 1st guess for winds across the FA before applying the gridded TCM. Previous................................................... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for all counties in our local area. Previous discussion: Rather shallow convection remains isolated to widely scattered this afternoon. Additional showers are expected to develop overnight, especially across the southern portions of the forecast area with a southeasterly low- level jet taking shaping with low- level Theta-E advection to increase. The initial band of showers could be heavy at times during Wednesday and given how sensitive the area is to heavy rainfall given the historic rainfall a few weeks ago we will raise a Flash Flood Watch beginning at 8 AM Wednesday. In addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory will be issued to account for high tide flooding given persistent onshore flow. A Tropical Storm Watch is also now in effect. Otherwise, opted to follow a blend of MAV/MET guidance tonight and Wednesday. The highs and lows will continue to range well above normal each period. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Increasing deep tropical moisture feed ahead of Micheal will produce periods of heavier rain and gusty showers leading into Thursday as Michael approaches from the south. Michael will weaken as it moves into our area from the south. The main effects will periods of strong gusty winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding or run up during times of high tides, and possible tornadoes. Pcp water reaches up near 2.5 inches Wed night into Thurs as winds increase out of the south to southeast in the outer circulation of Micheal. Expect gusty showers to move on shore through Wed night and then Trop Storm conditions spreading north on Thurs as Micheal reaches the area Thurs morning. The center is still forecast to move up the I-95 corridor through the day on Thurs exiting out just north of Hatteras Fri morning, with winds forecast to reach up to 40 to 50 mph. The strongest winds will be found in heavier rain showers and thunderstorms. The fast moving storm should produce up to 2 to 4 inches of rain in places with isolated higher amounts. Flash flooding in possible, especially inland where heavier rain should be focused. As the weakening storm moves toward and across eastern Carolinas on Thurs, tornadoes will become a concern, especially as the increase in shear will be coincident with diurnal heating. The impacts across the local area will be worsened by the fact that the area may be much more vulnerable due to Florence, in terms of wet ground leading to fallen trees, tarps on roofs, etc... Michael will track off to the northeast with plenty of dry air wrapping around the back end heading into Fri morning. This will lead to clearing skies and overnight lows dropping into the 60s, still above normal but cooler than previous days. The tropical air mass will maintain warm and humid conditions through Thurs with temps well above normal, 80s during the day on Thurs. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Any lingering rain chances early Friday will quickly give way to strong dry advection. Cooler air pushes in Friday night and over the weekend possibly yielding coolest air since before Summer. Warm and moist advection on Monday as the first high moves offshore but an even stronger cold front due Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 06Z...A few more aviation concerns this cycle as expected. The main feature is the area of convergence with a decent coverage of showers now taking shape just south of the area. Guidance is in good agreement in maintaining this feature and moving it northward over the next twelve hours or so. It appears however that VFR conditions are being maintained and will probably remain so. There could be a fleeting MVFR or even IFR observation but it appears the moisture is just to shallow to produce any widespread heavy rainfall. I did use prevailing SHRA through most of the morning and early afternoon hours along coastal terminals with a slightly shorter timeframe inland . Extended Outlook...Tropical cyclone Michael is expected to impact the area Wednesday night through Friday morning, bringing periods of heavy rain with IFR ceilings, as well as sustained winds of 30-40 kt with gusts potentially near the 50 knot range, especially at the coastal terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1015 PM Tuesday...Winds and sea conditions continue to slowly increase and build respectively across the ILM CWA. For the remainder of the night, ESE-SE winds will hover around 20 kt with gusts aoa 25 kt. Significant seas will run at 5 to 7 ft and primarily the result of 2-3 days of onshore winds with dominant periods having increased to 7 to 9 seconds. Decaying Tropical Storm Leslie swells have further dropped to around 2 ft at 11 second periods. Previous..................................................... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for all counties in our local area. Previous discussion: Conditions across the waters are already rough/steep given a combination of swell and persistent ESE fetch. The fetch will veer to a SE direction during Wednesday allowing seas to build further. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms should increase in coverage overnight, especially across the Long Bay waters. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Conditions will steadily deteriorate through Thurs into Thurs night as Michael approaches from the southwest as it weakens with winds forecast up to 40 to 50 kts with higher gusts. Tropical storm-force winds will spread northward across the waters on Thursday. Conditions likely at their worst late Thurs into Thurs night as winds shift around from SW to NW and start decreasing behind the exiting storm. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Gusty NW winds may still be diminishing Friday deepening on the speed of Michael's exit. High pressure moves across the area over the weekend yielding mostly northeasterly to easterly winds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 1000 PM Tuesday...Latest water levels of the Lower Cape Fear River(LCFR) at downtown Wilmington remain above minor coastal flood thresholds of 5.5 ft MLLW. High tide occurs at 1044 PM and will likely remain at or just shy of 6.0 ft MLLW. Minor coastal flooding of the LCFR will occur within a 3 hr window centered at each successive high tide for the next several days. Minor coastal flooding thresholds along the immediate coast, including the area beaches, will be met mainly during the morning High Tide cycles except including the evening high tide during Thu when Michael progresses across the FA. Minor coastal flooding thresholds for SC using Springmaid Pier is 7.5 ft MLLW and for NC using Johnny Mercer Pier at 6.0 ft MLLW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058- 059. Tropical Storm Watch for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056- 058-059. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for SCZ054-056. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for SCZ054-056. NC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for NCZ106-108- 110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ106>110. MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH/SRP SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...